Fernando Gonzalez d. Nicolas Almagro 7-6 (13-11), 7-5
The first set was probably the biggest choke I've ever witnessed. Almagro squandered not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, but eight set points; one with Fernando serving at 4-5 in the first and then the next seven in the tiebreaker. Fernando played most of the points pretty well, but Almagro beat himself in at least six of the eight set points. Three came off the forehand side while going for winners, including an extremely easy one during the 4-5 game. Surprisingly, Almagro did not totally fold in the second set, but hung in there until Gonzo brought down the inevitable in the Spaniard and prevailed 7-5. It's a key win for Gonzo, who is right in the thick of things for making it to Shanghai. In this same situation last year, he choked beyond belief, so today was an absolutely critical day for the Chilean.
Guillermo Canas over Agustin Calleri 6-3, 3-6, 7-5
Calleri led this one 5-3 in the third and then blew it. Granted just one break is never safe against Canas and Canas is one guy who is never out of a match until the last point is over, but still this has to be a tough one to swallow for Calleri. It's not a tough result for fans to swallow, though. Who would want to see a Federer-Calleri matchup when we could all see Federer-Canas III? I assume nobody. Canas beat Federer at Indian Wells in March and then stunned him again 7-6 in the third in Miami two weeks later. The Argentine was playing much better tennis in the Spring, but still this should be fun to watch. I'll take Federer in straights, but you can always count on Willy to put up a heck of a fight.
Canas/Nalbandian d. Hanley/Ullyett 6-3, 6-1
There are so many singles players in the doubles draw this week and a lot of intriguing pairings, so I thought there were would be a few "upsets" in doubles in Madrid, but this is not one I was anticipating, and especially not by such a convincing margin. I am seriously at a loss to even consider how this happened. I guess the Argentines returns of serve must have been consistently on fire, and Hanley and Ullyett must have played horribly in addition to that to get broken four times (and not have had even one break point opportunity!). Heck I questioned whether even Canas and Nalbandian would stay in the doubles since they are both through to the third round in singles. Well, good week for both of 'em!
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Tuesday in Madrid
Second round match thoughts are on the Daily Observations page at the PTB (Murray-Chela and Ginepri-Federer)
As for the conclusion of the first round on Tuesday:
On-fire Ivo Karlovic continued his winning ways with a relatively routine 6-4, 6-4 victory over Marat Safin. The Russian has done nothing lately while Karlovic just won a title last week in Sweden, so this comes as no surprise. Still, one would think that Safin could at least take one of the sets into a tiebreaker. With Davydenko out due to injury in Karlovic's section of the draw, this presents a huge opportunity for the giant to make another deep tournament run.
There were some fireworks later on in the day when Paul-Henri Mathieu and Mardy Fish took the court. Plenty of gamesmanship, bathroom breaks, and shouting matches took place in this one in addition to tennis. Not surprisingly, Fish collapsed right at the end of the match. Serving at 5-6 in the third, the American won just one point that game and that was the match. Mathieu advances to play fellow Frenchman Richard Gasquet in what should be a more civil affair and one in which Mathieu will have an even more difficult time getting through.
Good opening-round wins were also scored by Agustin Calleri (over Tursunov), Nicolas Kiefer (over Stanislas Wawrinka) and David Nalbandian (over Arnaud Clement). Calleri and Tursunov are both very up-and-down players and having won a tournament two weeks ago, I guess Tursunov was scheduled to be down this time around. Wawrinka, who made it to the final in Vienna last week before losing to Djokovic, probably had too quick a turnaround between that tournament and this one and Kiefer is not someone you want to be playing when you're not at your physical best. As such, this result isn't surprising at all. Finally, I assume Nalbandian was favored in his match with Clement, but pretty much any win for the Argentine right now is a good one. One win could be all Nalbandian gets this week, as he has a tough test with Tomas Berdych in the second round.
In the doubles match of the day, Fernando Gonzalez and Andre Sa took out Nadal and Feliciano Lopez 11-9 in the match tiebreaker for the third set. That must have been outrageously entertaining to watch live. I love how ignorant tennis fans just assume great singles players (specifically baseliners) stink at doubles. Well, anyone who actually pays attention knows this is far from the case. Gonzalez, of course, is an Olympic champion in doubles (with Massu). Nadal, meanwhile, is more than formidable in doubles. I've seen him play once in person (from the front row on one of the outer courts at the Open, paired with Tommy Robredo) and the Spaniards were nothing short of flawless in disposing of Jordan Kerr and Jim Thomas, who were seeded. Anyway, Nadal and Lopez are out, but Fernando (and Sa) moves on and continues to attempt to navigate his way through an interesting--and loaded--doubles draw.
As for the conclusion of the first round on Tuesday:
On-fire Ivo Karlovic continued his winning ways with a relatively routine 6-4, 6-4 victory over Marat Safin. The Russian has done nothing lately while Karlovic just won a title last week in Sweden, so this comes as no surprise. Still, one would think that Safin could at least take one of the sets into a tiebreaker. With Davydenko out due to injury in Karlovic's section of the draw, this presents a huge opportunity for the giant to make another deep tournament run.
There were some fireworks later on in the day when Paul-Henri Mathieu and Mardy Fish took the court. Plenty of gamesmanship, bathroom breaks, and shouting matches took place in this one in addition to tennis. Not surprisingly, Fish collapsed right at the end of the match. Serving at 5-6 in the third, the American won just one point that game and that was the match. Mathieu advances to play fellow Frenchman Richard Gasquet in what should be a more civil affair and one in which Mathieu will have an even more difficult time getting through.
Good opening-round wins were also scored by Agustin Calleri (over Tursunov), Nicolas Kiefer (over Stanislas Wawrinka) and David Nalbandian (over Arnaud Clement). Calleri and Tursunov are both very up-and-down players and having won a tournament two weeks ago, I guess Tursunov was scheduled to be down this time around. Wawrinka, who made it to the final in Vienna last week before losing to Djokovic, probably had too quick a turnaround between that tournament and this one and Kiefer is not someone you want to be playing when you're not at your physical best. As such, this result isn't surprising at all. Finally, I assume Nalbandian was favored in his match with Clement, but pretty much any win for the Argentine right now is a good one. One win could be all Nalbandian gets this week, as he has a tough test with Tomas Berdych in the second round.
In the doubles match of the day, Fernando Gonzalez and Andre Sa took out Nadal and Feliciano Lopez 11-9 in the match tiebreaker for the third set. That must have been outrageously entertaining to watch live. I love how ignorant tennis fans just assume great singles players (specifically baseliners) stink at doubles. Well, anyone who actually pays attention knows this is far from the case. Gonzalez, of course, is an Olympic champion in doubles (with Massu). Nadal, meanwhile, is more than formidable in doubles. I've seen him play once in person (from the front row on one of the outer courts at the Open, paired with Tommy Robredo) and the Spaniards were nothing short of flawless in disposing of Jordan Kerr and Jim Thomas, who were seeded. Anyway, Nadal and Lopez are out, but Fernando (and Sa) moves on and continues to attempt to navigate his way through an interesting--and loaded--doubles draw.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Some Much-Needed Doubles Thoughts
Thank god, Bjorkman and Mirnyi. It's about time they started playing the doubles they are capable of playing, and last week Team Bjorkman-Mirnyi took home the doubles title in Stockholm. The duo did not lose a set the entire tournament and posted a very impressive win over Clement and Llodra in the final, 6-4, 6-4. Bjorkman and Mirnyi are still 10th in the doubles race for the Masters Cup in Shanghai, but this win keeps them in contention and if they can follow it up with a huge performance in Madrid, they'll be right in the thick of things.
Meanwhile, we have some interesting doubles pairings going on in Madrid. In fact two enticing matches already took place on the first day of the proceedings. Sizzling David Ferrer is teaming with fellow baseliner Nicolas Almagro and the Spaniards stunned Erlich and Ram today in the first round. Don't ask me how; I guess they must have just been pounding away from the baseline and refusing to give Erlich and Ram many good looks up at net. And of course Ferrer's return always makes life touch on the server, probably to an even greater extent in doubles.
How about this matchup for some fun tennis: Canas and Nalbandian vs. Kuerten and Moya. I can't speak for the quality of doubles that went on, but it surely entertained the fans. The Argentine tandem prevailed 6-3, 4-6, 12-10 in the super-tiebreak.
Nadal was supposed to team with Hewitt, but Hewitt is injured so Nadal picked up Feliciano Lopez off the waiver wire and they are taking on Fernando Gonzalez (partnering with Andre Sa) in the first round. Talk about an all-out slugfest! Other intriguing teams include Berdych and Kiefer, Verdasco and Karlovic, and Monaco and Chela. James Blake, meanwhile, is in the draw with partner Eric Butorac. It's pretty awesome to see all these singles players in the doubles tournament, but the fear is that there could be plenty of withdrawals later in the week from guys who are making deep runs in the singles. We'll see.
Meanwhile, we have some interesting doubles pairings going on in Madrid. In fact two enticing matches already took place on the first day of the proceedings. Sizzling David Ferrer is teaming with fellow baseliner Nicolas Almagro and the Spaniards stunned Erlich and Ram today in the first round. Don't ask me how; I guess they must have just been pounding away from the baseline and refusing to give Erlich and Ram many good looks up at net. And of course Ferrer's return always makes life touch on the server, probably to an even greater extent in doubles.
How about this matchup for some fun tennis: Canas and Nalbandian vs. Kuerten and Moya. I can't speak for the quality of doubles that went on, but it surely entertained the fans. The Argentine tandem prevailed 6-3, 4-6, 12-10 in the super-tiebreak.
Nadal was supposed to team with Hewitt, but Hewitt is injured so Nadal picked up Feliciano Lopez off the waiver wire and they are taking on Fernando Gonzalez (partnering with Andre Sa) in the first round. Talk about an all-out slugfest! Other intriguing teams include Berdych and Kiefer, Verdasco and Karlovic, and Monaco and Chela. James Blake, meanwhile, is in the draw with partner Eric Butorac. It's pretty awesome to see all these singles players in the doubles tournament, but the fear is that there could be plenty of withdrawals later in the week from guys who are making deep runs in the singles. We'll see.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Monday First-Round Match Previews
Marcos Baghdatis vs. Andrei Pavel
This one has upset written all over it, but I just refuse to pick it because I'm also thinking--and hoping--that Baghdatis can turn his form around and start getting something out of his talent. He really hasn't done anything since his epic quarterfinal loss to Djokovic at Wimledon. At 33, Pavel is still going fairly strong and he's had a decent fall, including some very good tennis two weeks ago in the Belgium Challenger event. If this goes three, I like Pavel because it's well advertised that Bagman could be a lot fitter and his confidence is extremely fragile at the moment. But the surface should suit the Cypriot and I think he'll be able to pull out a tight match.
The pick: Baghdatis in 2
Radek Stepanek vs. Andy Murray
Probably the best first-round match of the tournament. Both of these guys would be seeded had it not been for injuries earlier in the season. Murray missed most of the summer but he reached the third round of the Open and two weeks ago made it to the final of Metz before losing to Robredo. Stepanek came on strong on the hard courts this summer and people are still talking about the second-round classic he lost to Djokovic at the Open. I just think Stepanek will be too solid and frustrate Murray by playing his smart, consistent, aggressive tennis.
The pick: Stepanek in 3
Juan Monaco vs. Igor Andreev
This will be a fun-to-watch baseline slugfest. Monaco has won three titles this year (all on clay) and he showed at the Open that he can play on hard courts, too. He made it to the fourth round and gave Djokovic all he could handle. Andreev has been solid recently, but I think Monaco's confidence is just a bit higher right now and I think Monaco's mental game is considerably stronger.
The pick: Monaco in 2
This one has upset written all over it, but I just refuse to pick it because I'm also thinking--and hoping--that Baghdatis can turn his form around and start getting something out of his talent. He really hasn't done anything since his epic quarterfinal loss to Djokovic at Wimledon. At 33, Pavel is still going fairly strong and he's had a decent fall, including some very good tennis two weeks ago in the Belgium Challenger event. If this goes three, I like Pavel because it's well advertised that Bagman could be a lot fitter and his confidence is extremely fragile at the moment. But the surface should suit the Cypriot and I think he'll be able to pull out a tight match.
The pick: Baghdatis in 2
Radek Stepanek vs. Andy Murray
Probably the best first-round match of the tournament. Both of these guys would be seeded had it not been for injuries earlier in the season. Murray missed most of the summer but he reached the third round of the Open and two weeks ago made it to the final of Metz before losing to Robredo. Stepanek came on strong on the hard courts this summer and people are still talking about the second-round classic he lost to Djokovic at the Open. I just think Stepanek will be too solid and frustrate Murray by playing his smart, consistent, aggressive tennis.
The pick: Stepanek in 3
Juan Monaco vs. Igor Andreev
This will be a fun-to-watch baseline slugfest. Monaco has won three titles this year (all on clay) and he showed at the Open that he can play on hard courts, too. He made it to the fourth round and gave Djokovic all he could handle. Andreev has been solid recently, but I think Monaco's confidence is just a bit higher right now and I think Monaco's mental game is considerably stronger.
The pick: Monaco in 2
Friday, October 12, 2007
Masters Series Madrid Qualifying Draw
Qualifying DrawIt hasn't exactly been that long since the U.S. Open, but it seems like it's been a while since we had a really big tournament on our hands to get excited about. Perhaps that's because the summer is so jam-packed full of awesome tennis action that five weeks of no Grand Slams or Master Series seem like an eternity.
Well, the Masters Series are back next week in Madrid, and the qualifying draw is out.
At the top spot we have #1 seed Ernests Gulbis, who, as you probably know if you've read any of my stuff recently or get on any tennis message boards, is one of my favorites at the moment. He has Gabashvili, Gicquel, and Ramirez-Hidalgo in his section so it won't be easy but he should come through unscathed.
I'd also like to see Ginepri, another one of my favorites and hometown boy, qualify out of a relatively easy portion of the draw.
Others to watch in the qualies include Koubek, Vliegen, Massu, Calleri, and Dancevic.
Hopefully the main draw will come out soon so we can see where the qualifiers are put in and start envisioning potential enticing first round matches with potential qualifiers.
My prediction for the six qualifiers are, in order of their position in the draw: Gulbis, Ginepri, Bolelli, Koubek, Vliegen, and Dancevic. Of those I think it's safe to say that Gulbis would be the scariest first-round opponent for a player in the main draw, while Koubek and Dancevic could also present problems in the early rounds.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Thoughts On India and Thailand (late September)
It's been a while since these have ended, but I never commented on them, so here we go.
To say Richard Gasquet was dominant in Mumbai, India would be a gross understatement. And while the draw wasn't overly strong, he did have to navigate a fairly tough road. In doing so, Gasquet did not drop one set the entire tournament and no set was closer than 6-4. The only real benefit he got from the draw was Hewitt going out early in the bottom half of the draw. So the Frenchman's opponent in the final was Olivier Rochus, no slouch, but someone who Gasquet should beat nine times out of ten -- especially at the moment, as O. Rochus has not been doing much on the court recently.
Gasquet's other victims, in order, were Vliegen, Fognini, Koubek, and the always-tough Fabrice Santoro. None gave Gasquet trouble in Thailand. The win put Gasquet back in the year-end Masters Cup discussion (he is currently 10th after a strong runner-up performance in Tokyo).
Well, unfortunately the story in Thailand was more about what it wasn't rather than what it was. The top two seeds, Djokovic and Roddick, both withdrew. Hard-luck Joachim Johansson also pulled out, as did Thomas Johansson and Hyung-Taik Lee.
That left a watered-down draw yielding huge opportunities for the remainder of the field. Tomas Berdych, Tommy Haas, and Carlos Moya were the top three seeds remaining before the tournament even started, but none took advantage (well, Berdych made it to the semis before getting upset by Benjamin Becker, but both Haas and Moya lost early - Haas in the second round to Mahut and Moya in the first to Becker).
It was Dmitry Tursunov, the sixth seed, who capitalized on the wide open draw. The up-and-down Russian went to three sets in three of his first four matches, but he saved his best tennis for last in the final against Becker. Tursunov erased the German 6-1, 6-2 for his second title of the year (Indianapolis). It's not enough to get him into the year-end Masters Cup or anything like that, but it's always nice to see Tursunov playing well, because he is supremely talented and it's a shame when he plays like he's trying to be Safin or Fernando Gonzalez and goes for winners on every shot and just falls apart. I have to say Tursunov's blogging is very consistent (in terms of quality, not quantity), and let's hope this is the start of a more consistent tennis game.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Top 10 Matches I've Seen at the U.S. Open
10. Marc Gicquel over Gaston Gaudio 6-0, 4-6, 4-6, 6-1, 7-6 (7-3) on the Grandstand, 2006, 3rd round.
This match had all the ups and downs of a typical Gaudio match. At times he looked like he didn’t want to be there at all, but at other times he looked like the player he was on the clay in 2004 and 2005. He did not try in the first set, and he really didn’t try in the fourth set. In fact the final point of that set ended with Gaudio hitting a routine forehand literally out of the stadium. Surprisingly, however, Gaudio made an effort to come back after the first set bagel and he did so admirably. Then the fifth set really got good. There were some relentless baseline rallies, shocking gets (mostly by Gicquel) and some phenomenal shot-making. Basically it just came down to Gicquel wanting it more in the fifth-set tiebreaker.
9. Marat Safin over David Nalbandian 6-3, 7-5, 2-6, 3-6, 7-6 (8-6) on Louis Armstrong, 2006, 2nd round
This match had all the ups and downs of a typical Gaudio match. At times he looked like he didn’t want to be there at all, but at other times he looked like the player he was on the clay in 2004 and 2005. He did not try in the first set, and he really didn’t try in the fourth set. In fact the final point of that set ended with Gaudio hitting a routine forehand literally out of the stadium. Surprisingly, however, Gaudio made an effort to come back after the first set bagel and he did so admirably. Then the fifth set really got good. There were some relentless baseline rallies, shocking gets (mostly by Gicquel) and some phenomenal shot-making. Basically it just came down to Gicquel wanting it more in the fifth-set tiebreaker.
This match was interrupted for about two minutes as the crowd on Louis Armstrong gave a standing ovation for Andre Agassi as Agassi lost his last match ever over on Arthur Ashe stadium at the same time. But it didn’t put a damper on the level of play or intensity on this court. Safin showed a surprisingly strong mental game, even though he gave himself no credit for that in his post-match interview. On match point in the fifth-set tiebreaker, Nalbandian controlled play the entire point, eventually ran Safin way wide into his deuce-side alley, the Russian made an unbelievable get and chipped it back as Nalbandian approached the service line, and Nalbandian excruciatingly missed a drop-shot on the tape, playing it too cute considering Safin was way off the court. To the fans delight, Safin’s on-court interview was even more entertaining than match point. I can’t remember exactly what he said, but in typical Safin fashion it was ridiculous and hilarious and featured plenty of instances in which Safin said he had been losing his mind and going mentally insane the entire match.
8. Juan Carlos Ferrero over Roger Federer 7-5, 7-6 (8-6), 1-6, 7-6 (8-6) on Louis Armstrong, 2000, 3rd round.
The main thing I remember about this one is that I barely had any idea who Juan Carlos Ferrero was and I had almost never even heard of Roger Federer. Fans could tell these guys were going to be the real deal (although nobody at the time would have predicted just what Federer has done), it was just disappointing that Federer couldn’t quite extend it to five sets, otherwise it would have been an epic.
7. Tommy Haas over Robby Ginepri 7-6 (7-1), 6-4, 3-6, 3-6, 7-6 (7-1) on Louis Armstrong, 2006, 3rd round
This was a rematch of a showdown you’ll soon hear about, one year later, same round, different court. It looked like Ginepri would be ousted with too much trouble after the first two sets, but he stormed back and forced a fifth set. Two Ginepri-Haas 3rd round U.S. Open matches in consecutive years, two five-setters! Throughout the fifth set, Ginepri held easily while Haas struggled on his service games. Ginepri even had 0-40 on Haas’ serve at 3-4 (I think) in the set. Unfortunately, Ginepri couldn’t convert and Haas managed to get it into a tiebreaker. Once there, everything changed, as Haas held all his service points and Ginepri held just one of his. The tiebreaker wasn’t close and left the fans disappointed, but that only took away just a little from an otherwise great match.
6. Richard Krajicek over Tim Henman 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 on Arthur Ashe, 2000, 3rd round
My brother, two friends and I will take the blame for Henman’s loss. Sitting in a box just a few rows up from the court inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, we started the wave at the 5-6 changeover in the fifth set with Henman about to serve to stay in the match. This was a night match at the Open and without any Americans being showcased, the atmosphere was not appropriate for a night match at the Open so we had to stir things up. Anyway, it worked with great success and delayed play for a few moment. Well, it didn’t work with great success for Henman. An epic match went down the drain with his worst service game of the night, punctuated by a devastating double fault to end the match.
5. Sargis Sargsian over Paul-Henri Mathieu 4-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2, 7-6 (7-4) on the Grandstand, 2004, 3rd round
Sargsian-Mathieu was not only an extremely well-played match, but the atmosphere was simply phenomenal. First off all, it was on the Grandstand, my favorite court ever (first because tons of epic matches always happen there, and also because it’s much a much more intimate setting for the fans than Ashe or Louis since every seat is close to the court and the front rows are practically right on the baseline and alleys). Second, the afternoon match quickly became a night match as it progressed. Most importantly, it was bordering on Davis Cup atmosphere, although the French fans were too few so the rowdy Armenians completely dominated and got most of the neutral observers, including me, to rally around Sarge. That could very well be what made the difference, as Sargsian pulled it out in the fifth-set tiebreaker, although not before Mathieu had one of the most epic holds of serve I’ve ever seen, at 5-5 in the fifth. That game lasted well over 15 minutes by itself.
4. Robby Ginepri over Tommy Haas 7-5, 6-7 (7-3), 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 on Arthur Ashe, 2005, 3rd round
Just as our crew takes part credit for Henman’s loss to Krajicek, my brother, two other friends and I take even more credit for Ginepri’s springboard win over Haas. Even though it was a night match in Arthur Ashe that featured an American, the crowd was nothing short of buzzkill. Our box provided by far the most vigorous support for Ginepri throughout the match. We weren’t exactly the J-Block, but we finally got at least some of the crowd riled up and backing Ginepri as the match entered the deciding set. A pleasant side note about the crowd: two German fans, probably trying to do too good a job keeping up with us, got kicked out of the stadium. Anyway, Ginepri played great tennis during the fifth set and to our delight emerged victorious. He tried to hit us a ball after the match but it went into the row behind us. Speaking of going further than expected, Ginepri followed up this huge victory with two more wins en route to the semi-finals.
This was the first match on the Grandstand on the middle Sunday, and it turned out to be a shockingly good start to the day. El Aynaoui, always one of the most charismatic and likable players on the tour, was a favorite of mine and my dad and we saw every point of this match from the second row in our normal spot in the Grandstand behind the far baseline. El Aynaoui lived on his spin serve out wide in the deuce court; I’d love to know how many aces and service winners he had on that alone. He also lived on his slice backhand that he could somehow chip with alarming consistency just over the net, making Novak, who came to net a ton, hit volleys at his feet throughout the match. Novak, however, used his attacking, aggressive play to make this one a thriller. At 5-5 in the fifth set tiebreaker, I witness one of the best points and amazing shots I’ve seen at the Open. With El Aynaoui serving, a long rally ensued before Novak stretched El Aynoui out wide to his deuce court with a powerful approach shot. But El Aynaoui got to it and flicked a top-spin crosscourt passing shot by Novak, giving him a match point. After a Novak volley sailed long ay 5-6, El Aynaoui collapsed behind the baseline. After the handshake and hugging of people in his box, he proceeded to launch his shirt, spare shirts, wristbands, and tennis rackets into the crowd! I didn’t get one, but it was still amazing.
2. David Sanguinetti over Paradorn Srichaphan 6-3, 4-6, 6-7 (7-2), 7-6 (8-6), 7-6 (7-5) on Louis Armstrong, 2005, 3rd round
In terms of drama, atmosphere, and general positive energy between the players, this one was probably the best ever. An afternoon match on Louis Armstrong, this one went well after dark. Our crew was decked out in the Thai Paradorn shirts and we sat with the ever-faithful Srichaphanatics, banding our red thundersticks and all. Sanguinetti got mad at us several times during the match, screaming and gesturing and all that stuff, but there was never any bad blood between him and Paradorn. In fact they even gave each other a high five after one particularly amazing point in the fifth set, which I can’t remember exactly because there was just too much drama in this one to recall the specifics. I do remember after one point in the fifth set in which Sangunetti ran Paradorn all over the court before Paradorn finally dove for a shot that he couldn’t get, leaving him sprawled on the ground. He did nothing for a few tense seconds, bringing a hush over the crowd, but then he rolled over and started doing push-ups. Gotta love that! Unfortunately Sanguinetti, who as you probably know has made a living off just getting the ball in play and making his opponents beat themselves, was just too steady in the fifth-set tiebreaker. Still it didn’t take away from how amazing the match was and still remains, and Paradorn even did his traditional four-corner bow, which he usually only does after victories.
1. Magnus Norman over Max Mirnyi 3-6, 4-6, 7-6 (7-5), 6-4, 7-6 (11-9) on the Grandstand, 2000, 3rd round
I started out down low for this one, but ended up (after going elsewhere for a while) watching this all-time classic on the overhang in between Louis and the Grandstand with hundreds of other mesmerized onlookers. Norman-Mirnyi featured an awesome contrast of styles; at the time Norman was the No. 3 player in the world, one of the quickest guys around the court and lethal from the back of the court. 6’5’’ Max “The Beast” Mirnyi was and still is one of the last serve-and-volleyers, and while he’s had some good results in singles, he’s always been one of the best in the world in doubles. But Mirnyi hung with Norman throughout this match, forcing a fifth set despite being down 0-2. In fact Mirnyi appeared to have this match won several times in the fifth set tiebreaker. I’m not sure how many match points each player had in the ‘breaker, but on two of Mirnyi’s, Norman hit two ridiculous topspin lob winners. That’s right: he’s down match point and twice he lobs a 6’5’’ guy for winners. My brother remembers all the details because he was front row for this one, but I’m pretty sure this one finally ended with both players collapsing on the ground and the fans ready to do the same.
***would love to hear comments, especially from those who happened to be present at any of these matches, or just remember watching them***
8. Juan Carlos Ferrero over Roger Federer 7-5, 7-6 (8-6), 1-6, 7-6 (8-6) on Louis Armstrong, 2000, 3rd round.
The main thing I remember about this one is that I barely had any idea who Juan Carlos Ferrero was and I had almost never even heard of Roger Federer. Fans could tell these guys were going to be the real deal (although nobody at the time would have predicted just what Federer has done), it was just disappointing that Federer couldn’t quite extend it to five sets, otherwise it would have been an epic.
7. Tommy Haas over Robby Ginepri 7-6 (7-1), 6-4, 3-6, 3-6, 7-6 (7-1) on Louis Armstrong, 2006, 3rd round
This was a rematch of a showdown you’ll soon hear about, one year later, same round, different court. It looked like Ginepri would be ousted with too much trouble after the first two sets, but he stormed back and forced a fifth set. Two Ginepri-Haas 3rd round U.S. Open matches in consecutive years, two five-setters! Throughout the fifth set, Ginepri held easily while Haas struggled on his service games. Ginepri even had 0-40 on Haas’ serve at 3-4 (I think) in the set. Unfortunately, Ginepri couldn’t convert and Haas managed to get it into a tiebreaker. Once there, everything changed, as Haas held all his service points and Ginepri held just one of his. The tiebreaker wasn’t close and left the fans disappointed, but that only took away just a little from an otherwise great match.
6. Richard Krajicek over Tim Henman 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 on Arthur Ashe, 2000, 3rd round
My brother, two friends and I will take the blame for Henman’s loss. Sitting in a box just a few rows up from the court inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, we started the wave at the 5-6 changeover in the fifth set with Henman about to serve to stay in the match. This was a night match at the Open and without any Americans being showcased, the atmosphere was not appropriate for a night match at the Open so we had to stir things up. Anyway, it worked with great success and delayed play for a few moment. Well, it didn’t work with great success for Henman. An epic match went down the drain with his worst service game of the night, punctuated by a devastating double fault to end the match.
5. Sargis Sargsian over Paul-Henri Mathieu 4-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2, 7-6 (7-4) on the Grandstand, 2004, 3rd round
Sargsian-Mathieu was not only an extremely well-played match, but the atmosphere was simply phenomenal. First off all, it was on the Grandstand, my favorite court ever (first because tons of epic matches always happen there, and also because it’s much a much more intimate setting for the fans than Ashe or Louis since every seat is close to the court and the front rows are practically right on the baseline and alleys). Second, the afternoon match quickly became a night match as it progressed. Most importantly, it was bordering on Davis Cup atmosphere, although the French fans were too few so the rowdy Armenians completely dominated and got most of the neutral observers, including me, to rally around Sarge. That could very well be what made the difference, as Sargsian pulled it out in the fifth-set tiebreaker, although not before Mathieu had one of the most epic holds of serve I’ve ever seen, at 5-5 in the fifth. That game lasted well over 15 minutes by itself.
4. Robby Ginepri over Tommy Haas 7-5, 6-7 (7-3), 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 on Arthur Ashe, 2005, 3rd round
Just as our crew takes part credit for Henman’s loss to Krajicek, my brother, two other friends and I take even more credit for Ginepri’s springboard win over Haas. Even though it was a night match in Arthur Ashe that featured an American, the crowd was nothing short of buzzkill. Our box provided by far the most vigorous support for Ginepri throughout the match. We weren’t exactly the J-Block, but we finally got at least some of the crowd riled up and backing Ginepri as the match entered the deciding set. A pleasant side note about the crowd: two German fans, probably trying to do too good a job keeping up with us, got kicked out of the stadium. Anyway, Ginepri played great tennis during the fifth set and to our delight emerged victorious. He tried to hit us a ball after the match but it went into the row behind us. Speaking of going further than expected, Ginepri followed up this huge victory with two more wins en route to the semi-finals.
This was the first match on the Grandstand on the middle Sunday, and it turned out to be a shockingly good start to the day. El Aynaoui, always one of the most charismatic and likable players on the tour, was a favorite of mine and my dad and we saw every point of this match from the second row in our normal spot in the Grandstand behind the far baseline. El Aynaoui lived on his spin serve out wide in the deuce court; I’d love to know how many aces and service winners he had on that alone. He also lived on his slice backhand that he could somehow chip with alarming consistency just over the net, making Novak, who came to net a ton, hit volleys at his feet throughout the match. Novak, however, used his attacking, aggressive play to make this one a thriller. At 5-5 in the fifth set tiebreaker, I witness one of the best points and amazing shots I’ve seen at the Open. With El Aynaoui serving, a long rally ensued before Novak stretched El Aynoui out wide to his deuce court with a powerful approach shot. But El Aynaoui got to it and flicked a top-spin crosscourt passing shot by Novak, giving him a match point. After a Novak volley sailed long ay 5-6, El Aynaoui collapsed behind the baseline. After the handshake and hugging of people in his box, he proceeded to launch his shirt, spare shirts, wristbands, and tennis rackets into the crowd! I didn’t get one, but it was still amazing.
2. David Sanguinetti over Paradorn Srichaphan 6-3, 4-6, 6-7 (7-2), 7-6 (8-6), 7-6 (7-5) on Louis Armstrong, 2005, 3rd round
In terms of drama, atmosphere, and general positive energy between the players, this one was probably the best ever. An afternoon match on Louis Armstrong, this one went well after dark. Our crew was decked out in the Thai Paradorn shirts and we sat with the ever-faithful Srichaphanatics, banding our red thundersticks and all. Sanguinetti got mad at us several times during the match, screaming and gesturing and all that stuff, but there was never any bad blood between him and Paradorn. In fact they even gave each other a high five after one particularly amazing point in the fifth set, which I can’t remember exactly because there was just too much drama in this one to recall the specifics. I do remember after one point in the fifth set in which Sangunetti ran Paradorn all over the court before Paradorn finally dove for a shot that he couldn’t get, leaving him sprawled on the ground. He did nothing for a few tense seconds, bringing a hush over the crowd, but then he rolled over and started doing push-ups. Gotta love that! Unfortunately Sanguinetti, who as you probably know has made a living off just getting the ball in play and making his opponents beat themselves, was just too steady in the fifth-set tiebreaker. Still it didn’t take away from how amazing the match was and still remains, and Paradorn even did his traditional four-corner bow, which he usually only does after victories.
1. Magnus Norman over Max Mirnyi 3-6, 4-6, 7-6 (7-5), 6-4, 7-6 (11-9) on the Grandstand, 2000, 3rd round
I started out down low for this one, but ended up (after going elsewhere for a while) watching this all-time classic on the overhang in between Louis and the Grandstand with hundreds of other mesmerized onlookers. Norman-Mirnyi featured an awesome contrast of styles; at the time Norman was the No. 3 player in the world, one of the quickest guys around the court and lethal from the back of the court. 6’5’’ Max “The Beast” Mirnyi was and still is one of the last serve-and-volleyers, and while he’s had some good results in singles, he’s always been one of the best in the world in doubles. But Mirnyi hung with Norman throughout this match, forcing a fifth set despite being down 0-2. In fact Mirnyi appeared to have this match won several times in the fifth set tiebreaker. I’m not sure how many match points each player had in the ‘breaker, but on two of Mirnyi’s, Norman hit two ridiculous topspin lob winners. That’s right: he’s down match point and twice he lobs a 6’5’’ guy for winners. My brother remembers all the details because he was front row for this one, but I’m pretty sure this one finally ended with both players collapsing on the ground and the fans ready to do the same.
***would love to hear comments, especially from those who happened to be present at any of these matches, or just remember watching them***
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Portland Name Site of Davis Cup Final
Portland?!?!?!? Really? Really, USTA? Really?
Yeah, I'm mainly upset because if it had been awarded to Winston-Salem I would have strongly considered making an appearance. But alas, no suck luck.
Still, even considering non-selfish reasons, give me a break. Are there even tennis courts in Portland? For real, is there anything ATP related that ever goes on in Portland or the entire state of Oregon? An ATP tournament? Even a Challenger level event?!?!?
Furthermore, the reasoning, or so as I understand it, for Portland is primarily advertising space inside the arena. So typical. Yet also so pathetic.
I just hope tennis fans on the west coast actually show up and root on the Americans. I won't stand for any kind of soft-core atmosphere at a Davis Cup final. It should be, and it better be, the most raucous atmosphere in tennis year in and year out.
I'm not happy about the location, but GO U.S.A.!
Yeah, I'm mainly upset because if it had been awarded to Winston-Salem I would have strongly considered making an appearance. But alas, no suck luck.
Still, even considering non-selfish reasons, give me a break. Are there even tennis courts in Portland? For real, is there anything ATP related that ever goes on in Portland or the entire state of Oregon? An ATP tournament? Even a Challenger level event?!?!?
Furthermore, the reasoning, or so as I understand it, for Portland is primarily advertising space inside the arena. So typical. Yet also so pathetic.
I just hope tennis fans on the west coast actually show up and root on the Americans. I won't stand for any kind of soft-core atmosphere at a Davis Cup final. It should be, and it better be, the most raucous atmosphere in tennis year in and year out.
I'm not happy about the location, but GO U.S.A.!
U.S.A. in the Finals of Davis Cup
Don't get me wrong, it's great to be back in the Davis Cup final, but it's not like we did anything that spectacular over the weekend in Sweden. Sure, Andy Roddick came up big, but I would have been absolutely floored if he had lost any of his two matches. Roddick's first opponent, Joachim Johansson, hadn't played a tennis match since February, at least not to my knowledge. His opponent for the reverse singles, Jonas Bjorkman, is almost twice as old as some of the current ATP Tour stars. That said, it's not like Roddick controls his schedule of play. He took what was put in front of him and got the job done.
As usual, though, it was the Bryan Brothers who really did it for Team U.S.A. After James Blake stumbled to a wretched four-set loss at the hands of Thomas Johansson, it was tied up 1-1 heading into Saturday doubles. While you always have to feel good about the Bryans' chances, especially in Davis Cup, I wasn't about to chalk up an automatic win before the match was even played; not with them facing a veteran doubles standout in Bjorkman and one of the reigning U.S. Open champions in Simon Aspelin. The first set went just about how I thought the whole match would go: it took 24 points just to decide the first-set tiebreaker! The Bryans prevailed 13-11, probably demoralized their opponents and the Swedish fans, and cruised the rest of the way. With the U.S.A favored in both reverse singles affairs, that all but sealed the fate of this semi-final Davis Cup rubber.
As usual, though, it was the Bryan Brothers who really did it for Team U.S.A. After James Blake stumbled to a wretched four-set loss at the hands of Thomas Johansson, it was tied up 1-1 heading into Saturday doubles. While you always have to feel good about the Bryans' chances, especially in Davis Cup, I wasn't about to chalk up an automatic win before the match was even played; not with them facing a veteran doubles standout in Bjorkman and one of the reigning U.S. Open champions in Simon Aspelin. The first set went just about how I thought the whole match would go: it took 24 points just to decide the first-set tiebreaker! The Bryans prevailed 13-11, probably demoralized their opponents and the Swedish fans, and cruised the rest of the way. With the U.S.A favored in both reverse singles affairs, that all but sealed the fate of this semi-final Davis Cup rubber.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Day 3 U.S. Open Matches
John Isner over Rik De Voest 6-3, 6-3, 7-6 (7-4)
Isner's serve was way too much for the German, so the Isner Legend (as the USOpen.org calls it) continues. The 6-9 American wild card actually lost serve today, but it was at 5-1 in the second set so he just must have lost focus. Isner had chances to break in the second set, but clearly he couldn't stand the thought of playing a tennis match that didn't involve a tiebreaker. The first five points of the 'breaker were RIDICULOUS - in term's of both Isner's play and one point of net-cord luck. He got up 5-0, lost the next four, then served two bombs to take it 7-4. Next up is a third-round showdown with Roger Federer. I will be at the match! I'm hoping for Saturday night on Arthur Ashe....
Roger Federer over Paul Capedeville 6-1, 6-4, 6-4
Even Federer said he played well, and when that happens, you know he must have been on fire. He was. 45 winners and 11 unforced errors!?!? Wow. Capedeville even played well in the third set and never had a remote chance. And I think I'll mention it again: Federer-Isner on Saturday and I'll be in attendance.
Robby Ginepri over Oliver Rochus 6-0, 6-3, 6-1
OK I thought Ginepri had a good chance it this one, but this scoreline is just ridiculous. I mean Ginepri has barely won matches this year, much less ones this lopsided. Granted Rochus has been close to terrible over the past four months, but still he is still a formidable opponent. Rochus also has enjoyed some really good Opens in the past as well. Not this time; Ginepri had way too much game for him on this day. Big Shot Bob always seems to find his game this time of year. Could he be finding it again?
Marat Safin over Frank Dancevic 7-5, 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (9-7)
I had Dancevic in this one that was more of a don't-wanna-get-my-hopes-up-about-Safin pick. I did think Dancevic had a real good chance though; he's had a great summer and Safin has been anything but the Safin of old throughout this year. By all indications, however, Safin played great tennis today and more importantly, sported a strong mental game. Pulling out three close sets certainly would suggest that. Safin has Wawrinka next and he'll have to play just like he did today to pull that one out. I'm hoping for a Safin-Ginepri third round clash, and hoping they'll throw it on Armstrong as opposed to Ashe.
Isner's serve was way too much for the German, so the Isner Legend (as the USOpen.org calls it) continues. The 6-9 American wild card actually lost serve today, but it was at 5-1 in the second set so he just must have lost focus. Isner had chances to break in the second set, but clearly he couldn't stand the thought of playing a tennis match that didn't involve a tiebreaker. The first five points of the 'breaker were RIDICULOUS - in term's of both Isner's play and one point of net-cord luck. He got up 5-0, lost the next four, then served two bombs to take it 7-4. Next up is a third-round showdown with Roger Federer. I will be at the match! I'm hoping for Saturday night on Arthur Ashe....
Roger Federer over Paul Capedeville 6-1, 6-4, 6-4
Even Federer said he played well, and when that happens, you know he must have been on fire. He was. 45 winners and 11 unforced errors!?!? Wow. Capedeville even played well in the third set and never had a remote chance. And I think I'll mention it again: Federer-Isner on Saturday and I'll be in attendance.
Robby Ginepri over Oliver Rochus 6-0, 6-3, 6-1
OK I thought Ginepri had a good chance it this one, but this scoreline is just ridiculous. I mean Ginepri has barely won matches this year, much less ones this lopsided. Granted Rochus has been close to terrible over the past four months, but still he is still a formidable opponent. Rochus also has enjoyed some really good Opens in the past as well. Not this time; Ginepri had way too much game for him on this day. Big Shot Bob always seems to find his game this time of year. Could he be finding it again?
Marat Safin over Frank Dancevic 7-5, 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (9-7)
I had Dancevic in this one that was more of a don't-wanna-get-my-hopes-up-about-Safin pick. I did think Dancevic had a real good chance though; he's had a great summer and Safin has been anything but the Safin of old throughout this year. By all indications, however, Safin played great tennis today and more importantly, sported a strong mental game. Pulling out three close sets certainly would suggest that. Safin has Wawrinka next and he'll have to play just like he did today to pull that one out. I'm hoping for a Safin-Ginepri third round clash, and hoping they'll throw it on Armstrong as opposed to Ashe.
Day 2 U.S. Open Matches
Xavier Malisse over Kristian Pless 6-4, 6-7 (7-5), 6-3, 7-5
I didn't even think Malisse was in the draw this year. Where has he been? Well, it's not like beating Pless 7-5 in the fourth is some kind of extraordinary accomplishment, but it's certainly a good sign for Malisse. Malisse always - and I mean always - seems to be around over Labor Day weekend at the Open, and he actually has a decent chance to be there again. He has David Nalbandian next, and Nalbandian has not exactly been lighting up the tennis courts in 2007.
Stefan Koubek over Sam Querrey 7-6 (7-1), 6-1, 6-1
What a stunning disappointment for Querrey. I mean this is really bad. The loss itself is bad, but the way it happened is even worse. Querrey squandered six match points in the first set before losing in a tiebreaker, and then he just completely went away. He was done after the first set and just went through the motions in the second and third. How else can you explain someone with that serve winning two games in two sets!? And Querrey had been playing well prior to this one....
Wayne Odesnik over Danai Udomchoke 6-7 (7-2), 6-3, 6-1, 3-6, 7-6 (7-2)
This is the third win in two days for American wild cards (Odesnik joined Isner and Donald Young in the second round) and surely Odesnik's biggest win of his career. He has been playing the best tennis of his career on the U.S. hard courts this summer (lost to Isner in the 3rd round of D.C. and then beat Ljubicic in Montreal) but this win was the biggest yet. Odesnik actually has a good chance to go one more round, as he gets Juan Ignacio Chela in the second round and Chela has been anything but stellar recently.
I didn't even think Malisse was in the draw this year. Where has he been? Well, it's not like beating Pless 7-5 in the fourth is some kind of extraordinary accomplishment, but it's certainly a good sign for Malisse. Malisse always - and I mean always - seems to be around over Labor Day weekend at the Open, and he actually has a decent chance to be there again. He has David Nalbandian next, and Nalbandian has not exactly been lighting up the tennis courts in 2007.
Stefan Koubek over Sam Querrey 7-6 (7-1), 6-1, 6-1
What a stunning disappointment for Querrey. I mean this is really bad. The loss itself is bad, but the way it happened is even worse. Querrey squandered six match points in the first set before losing in a tiebreaker, and then he just completely went away. He was done after the first set and just went through the motions in the second and third. How else can you explain someone with that serve winning two games in two sets!? And Querrey had been playing well prior to this one....
Wayne Odesnik over Danai Udomchoke 6-7 (7-2), 6-3, 6-1, 3-6, 7-6 (7-2)
This is the third win in two days for American wild cards (Odesnik joined Isner and Donald Young in the second round) and surely Odesnik's biggest win of his career. He has been playing the best tennis of his career on the U.S. hard courts this summer (lost to Isner in the 3rd round of D.C. and then beat Ljubicic in Montreal) but this win was the biggest yet. Odesnik actually has a good chance to go one more round, as he gets Juan Ignacio Chela in the second round and Chela has been anything but stellar recently.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Day 1 U.S. Open Matches
Max Mirnyi over Marcos Baghdatis 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 7-6 (8-6)
Baghdatis just hasn't had as good of a year in 2007 as he did in 2006, although he started playing better during the U.S. Open Series. Mirnyi hasn't had great singles results in quite some time, though, so Bagman was the favorite in this one. But when Mirnyi comes to the net so often (I think he approached 140 times this match) against who player whose confidence isn't completely stable,the it can put overwhelming pressure on the opponent. Even though Max has long been more of a doubles star, he always seems to still be around in singles when I'm at the Open over Labor Day weekend. Hopefully he'll be able to beat Grosjean in round two and make yet another 3rd round appearance in singles.
Andy Murray over Pablo Cuevas 6-2, 6-3, 6-0
I always thought Murray's first-round match at the Open would tell us everything about his prospects in this tournament, and if that's the case, that's a glorious thing for Murray. I have no idea who Cuevas is, but if you win a match 2, 3, and 0 in the main draw of the Open, you have to be playing some decent tennis regardless of the opponent. Plus Cuevas came through qualifying so he must have been playing decent tennis. I don't think anyone's ready to proclaim Murray completely healthy, but obviously his wrist injury was getting better. Initially I thought Murray would have no chance against Bjorkman in the 2nd round (I was thinking ahead because I assumed he'd at least be able to beat Cuevas), but now I think he has a solid chance in that one and once he gets another match and more confidence under his belt, who knows what could happen if he prevails over Bjorkman.
Feliciano Lopez over Juan Carlos Ferrero 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
This isn't too much of a shock but the apparent ease with which Lopez did it certainly is. Ferrero had that one run to the U.S. Open final in 2003, but other than that he hasn't been too stellar on hard courts. Lopez, meanwhile, has the huge serve and power baseline game to thrive on the faster surfaces. So I guess we shouldn't be too surprised. After all, he also destroyed Ivan Ljubicic in the first round of last year's U.S. Open.
Baghdatis just hasn't had as good of a year in 2007 as he did in 2006, although he started playing better during the U.S. Open Series. Mirnyi hasn't had great singles results in quite some time, though, so Bagman was the favorite in this one. But when Mirnyi comes to the net so often (I think he approached 140 times this match) against who player whose confidence isn't completely stable,the it can put overwhelming pressure on the opponent. Even though Max has long been more of a doubles star, he always seems to still be around in singles when I'm at the Open over Labor Day weekend. Hopefully he'll be able to beat Grosjean in round two and make yet another 3rd round appearance in singles.
Andy Murray over Pablo Cuevas 6-2, 6-3, 6-0
I always thought Murray's first-round match at the Open would tell us everything about his prospects in this tournament, and if that's the case, that's a glorious thing for Murray. I have no idea who Cuevas is, but if you win a match 2, 3, and 0 in the main draw of the Open, you have to be playing some decent tennis regardless of the opponent. Plus Cuevas came through qualifying so he must have been playing decent tennis. I don't think anyone's ready to proclaim Murray completely healthy, but obviously his wrist injury was getting better. Initially I thought Murray would have no chance against Bjorkman in the 2nd round (I was thinking ahead because I assumed he'd at least be able to beat Cuevas), but now I think he has a solid chance in that one and once he gets another match and more confidence under his belt, who knows what could happen if he prevails over Bjorkman.
Feliciano Lopez over Juan Carlos Ferrero 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
This isn't too much of a shock but the apparent ease with which Lopez did it certainly is. Ferrero had that one run to the U.S. Open final in 2003, but other than that he hasn't been too stellar on hard courts. Lopez, meanwhile, has the huge serve and power baseline game to thrive on the faster surfaces. So I guess we shouldn't be too surprised. After all, he also destroyed Ivan Ljubicic in the first round of last year's U.S. Open.
U.S. Open: Here We Go
Well the U.S. Open is finally upon us.
25 days ago I started my Top 25 contender list, and due to the passing of time and the release of the draw, here's how I'd change it to make a final Top 25.
Federer and Djokovic obviously stay at 1 and 2, as I did those both after the draw came out and I think Djokovic can get through it to the final despite how difficult it is.
I'd move Blake up to #3; he is in a soft quarter and has to be considered the favorite to come out of there and make the semis.
Nadal would move up to #4. He's probably in the most TALENTED quarter, but nobody in there is playing good tennis right now so Nadal should be able to take advantage.
Hewitt needs to be bumped down since he'd play Djokovic in the 4th round, but maybe not any below #5. Most likely he'll either win three matches, or he'll win 5 or 6. If he gets past Djokovic, he has a great chance of making the final. But that's a tall order to get past the Djoker.
Davydenko probably #6. He's in Blake's quarter and has a decent chance to make the semis.
Roddick has to plummet down to #7. Simply because he would have Federer in the quarters; that's just rough. Of course if he pulls off the shocker, he could be considered the favorite to win it all depending on how Djoker is looking on the other half of the draw.
more to come...
25 days ago I started my Top 25 contender list, and due to the passing of time and the release of the draw, here's how I'd change it to make a final Top 25.
Federer and Djokovic obviously stay at 1 and 2, as I did those both after the draw came out and I think Djokovic can get through it to the final despite how difficult it is.
I'd move Blake up to #3; he is in a soft quarter and has to be considered the favorite to come out of there and make the semis.
Nadal would move up to #4. He's probably in the most TALENTED quarter, but nobody in there is playing good tennis right now so Nadal should be able to take advantage.
Hewitt needs to be bumped down since he'd play Djokovic in the 4th round, but maybe not any below #5. Most likely he'll either win three matches, or he'll win 5 or 6. If he gets past Djokovic, he has a great chance of making the final. But that's a tall order to get past the Djoker.
Davydenko probably #6. He's in Blake's quarter and has a decent chance to make the semis.
Roddick has to plummet down to #7. Simply because he would have Federer in the quarters; that's just rough. Of course if he pulls off the shocker, he could be considered the favorite to win it all depending on how Djoker is looking on the other half of the draw.
more to come...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Sunday 'Nati Analysis
Roger Federer d. James Blake 6-1, 6-4
I foolish thought Blake had a chance in this one (at least to make it close, it wasn't like I was picking him to win the match), but that was clearly not the case. Federer's game picked up considerably from where it had been throughout the tournament and Blake's fell off a long way from where it was against Ferrero and Davydenko (and the last two sets against Querrey); of course Federer had a little bit to do with that. In any case, it was a terrible match and there's really nothing else to say about it. Federer is just a lot better than Blake. Period.
As for what this means about each player's prospects at the U.S. Open: well Federer always has been the favorite, and now his critics who think Djokovic has the edge at the Open should probably rethink themselves. I'm not guaranteeing a Federer victory like we all did in the past, but as long as he plays close to his best he will beat Djokovic or anyone else.
Blake has never made it past the quarterfinals of a major. As long as his forehand is on fire like it was against Davydenko, he should make it back to that stage, but no further.
I foolish thought Blake had a chance in this one (at least to make it close, it wasn't like I was picking him to win the match), but that was clearly not the case. Federer's game picked up considerably from where it had been throughout the tournament and Blake's fell off a long way from where it was against Ferrero and Davydenko (and the last two sets against Querrey); of course Federer had a little bit to do with that. In any case, it was a terrible match and there's really nothing else to say about it. Federer is just a lot better than Blake. Period.
As for what this means about each player's prospects at the U.S. Open: well Federer always has been the favorite, and now his critics who think Djokovic has the edge at the Open should probably rethink themselves. I'm not guaranteeing a Federer victory like we all did in the past, but as long as he plays close to his best he will beat Djokovic or anyone else.
Blake has never made it past the quarterfinals of a major. As long as his forehand is on fire like it was against Davydenko, he should make it back to that stage, but no further.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Saturday 'Nati Analysis
James Blake over Nikolay Davydenko 6-4, 6-2
Davydenko came out hot, picking up right where he left off with his destruction of David Ferrer in the quarters. After his early 2-0 lead, however, it was all Blake all the time. I'm not sure what the deal was with Davydenko, but his game fell off a ton the rest of the match. Obviously there's not a lot most guys can do when Blake is on - and Blake was definitely on tonight - but Davydenko still could have at least made it a match. In any case, a combination of Blake's overwhelming power from the baseline and Davydenko's surprising frustration level (he rarely shows emotion) brought the Russian down. There were several great baseline slugfests during the match, but Blake's monster forehand pretty much controlled play throughout the night. If anyone saw the match, you know that was one of the most ridiculous match-clinching shots in history. If you didn't I suggest watching SportsCenter because it's hard to describe in words; but Blake hit an on-the-full-run stretch forehand slap cross-court that blew past an outstretched Davydenko, who had just hit a nasty approach shot. It was an appropriate way to end the day for Blake.
Roger Federer over Lleyton Hewitt 6-3, 6-7 (9-7), 7-6 (7-1)
While this wasn't quite as amazing as the score would indicate, it was still a very good match. Both players stunk it up in the first set, but both the second and third sets were high quality, for the most part. Hewitt was more consistent and I thought he deserved to win the match, but you know how Federer turns things up at the right times. Hewitt, though, also played some incredibly clutch tennis. Among other huge shots, he saved a match point in the second-set tiebreaker with an incredible drop-volley. Hewitt got up a break early in the third to take a 3-2 lead, but Federer - as he always does - got it right back with some stellar, aggressive play. Really the only to periods of the match where Federer really played great were that game in which he broke back and the third-set tiebreaker (Hewitt also folded in the 'breaker). Other than that, Federer was only decent at best. At most tournaments, Federer traditionally wins ugly in his first few matches and then really heats up, but that hasn't happened yet and I don't see it happening. If Blake can get past Davydenko tonight, I think he has a real chance to beat Federer, or at least make it closer than he usually does. As for Davydenko, he would also have a chance, but I just don't think he has the belief necessary to beat Federer (or any of the other top three players), whereas Blake does.
Davydenko came out hot, picking up right where he left off with his destruction of David Ferrer in the quarters. After his early 2-0 lead, however, it was all Blake all the time. I'm not sure what the deal was with Davydenko, but his game fell off a ton the rest of the match. Obviously there's not a lot most guys can do when Blake is on - and Blake was definitely on tonight - but Davydenko still could have at least made it a match. In any case, a combination of Blake's overwhelming power from the baseline and Davydenko's surprising frustration level (he rarely shows emotion) brought the Russian down. There were several great baseline slugfests during the match, but Blake's monster forehand pretty much controlled play throughout the night. If anyone saw the match, you know that was one of the most ridiculous match-clinching shots in history. If you didn't I suggest watching SportsCenter because it's hard to describe in words; but Blake hit an on-the-full-run stretch forehand slap cross-court that blew past an outstretched Davydenko, who had just hit a nasty approach shot. It was an appropriate way to end the day for Blake.
Roger Federer over Lleyton Hewitt 6-3, 6-7 (9-7), 7-6 (7-1)
While this wasn't quite as amazing as the score would indicate, it was still a very good match. Both players stunk it up in the first set, but both the second and third sets were high quality, for the most part. Hewitt was more consistent and I thought he deserved to win the match, but you know how Federer turns things up at the right times. Hewitt, though, also played some incredibly clutch tennis. Among other huge shots, he saved a match point in the second-set tiebreaker with an incredible drop-volley. Hewitt got up a break early in the third to take a 3-2 lead, but Federer - as he always does - got it right back with some stellar, aggressive play. Really the only to periods of the match where Federer really played great were that game in which he broke back and the third-set tiebreaker (Hewitt also folded in the 'breaker). Other than that, Federer was only decent at best. At most tournaments, Federer traditionally wins ugly in his first few matches and then really heats up, but that hasn't happened yet and I don't see it happening. If Blake can get past Davydenko tonight, I think he has a real chance to beat Federer, or at least make it closer than he usually does. As for Davydenko, he would also have a chance, but I just don't think he has the belief necessary to beat Federer (or any of the other top three players), whereas Blake does.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Friday 'Nati Analysis
James Blake over Sam Querrey 5-7, 6-4, 6-4
Querrey won the first set 7-5 but it felt more like 6-2. He was serving well, hitting a heavy forehand, and basically just played really smart. Blake was having an awful time with his forehand and Querrey kept the ball in play and let Blake miss, while going for his big shots at the right times. In the second and third Blake basically just completely turned things around. He made 24 errors in the first set and just four in the second. Querrey played one loose service game in each of the last two sets and that was the main difference. He didn't play much worse than he did in the first two sets, Blake just turned up his game a level - or five. You probably know that when Blake's forehand gets on fire, it really gets on fire.
Nikolay Davydenko over David Ferrer 6-2, 6-4
Well Ferrer finally came back to earth today. I almost picked him in this one due to his run in Cincinnati (highlighted by the win over Roddick) and Davydenko's relatively poor play of late, but fortunately I thought better of it and sided with the better hard-court player. Basically these two have similar games, and on slick hard courts, Davydenko can do everything Ferrer can do and do it better. Ferrer just never sank his teeth into this match, and his mental game quickly followed the downward spiral started by his physical game. It's nice to see Davydenko playing well again (and being able to put the gambling issue behind him - what happened to that story being news, anyway?) and perhaps giving us another real contender to make a deep run at the Open.
Lleyton Hewitt over Carlos Moya 6-2, 6-4
I had Hewitt with a decent amount of confidence in this one, but I thought it would be a little bit closer. The Aussie had a few things going in his favour even before this one. First, while Moya is fine with this kind of fast hard court, Hewitt absolutely loves it. Furthermore, Moya had to go through Nalbandian, Djokovic, and a 7-5 in the third win over Del Potro prior to this match, while Hewitt - after a thriller in round one against Wawrinka - played an injured Gasquet and then rolled over Melzer. Hewitt's playing well right now, but I don't see him beating Federer tomorrow, even though Fed is by no means playing great.
Roger Federer over Nicolas Almagro 6-3, 3-6, 6-2
Almagro came into this match playing great tennis (three straight-set wins over Mayer, Ljubicic, and Nieminen) and Federer has been playing uninspiring tennis in Cincinnati, but I still didn't give the Spaniard much of a chance in this one. Of couse, I didn't expect Federer to continue to play this bad, but I guess he did. He should not lose a 6-3 set to Almagro on hard courts; I don't care if Almagro is at the top of his game or not. Nonetheless, Federer has always owned Hewitt and I expect it to be no different tomorrow. As for Almagro, I have higher hopes for him at the Open than I did heading in to Cincinnati.
Querrey won the first set 7-5 but it felt more like 6-2. He was serving well, hitting a heavy forehand, and basically just played really smart. Blake was having an awful time with his forehand and Querrey kept the ball in play and let Blake miss, while going for his big shots at the right times. In the second and third Blake basically just completely turned things around. He made 24 errors in the first set and just four in the second. Querrey played one loose service game in each of the last two sets and that was the main difference. He didn't play much worse than he did in the first two sets, Blake just turned up his game a level - or five. You probably know that when Blake's forehand gets on fire, it really gets on fire.
Nikolay Davydenko over David Ferrer 6-2, 6-4
Well Ferrer finally came back to earth today. I almost picked him in this one due to his run in Cincinnati (highlighted by the win over Roddick) and Davydenko's relatively poor play of late, but fortunately I thought better of it and sided with the better hard-court player. Basically these two have similar games, and on slick hard courts, Davydenko can do everything Ferrer can do and do it better. Ferrer just never sank his teeth into this match, and his mental game quickly followed the downward spiral started by his physical game. It's nice to see Davydenko playing well again (and being able to put the gambling issue behind him - what happened to that story being news, anyway?) and perhaps giving us another real contender to make a deep run at the Open.
Lleyton Hewitt over Carlos Moya 6-2, 6-4
I had Hewitt with a decent amount of confidence in this one, but I thought it would be a little bit closer. The Aussie had a few things going in his favour even before this one. First, while Moya is fine with this kind of fast hard court, Hewitt absolutely loves it. Furthermore, Moya had to go through Nalbandian, Djokovic, and a 7-5 in the third win over Del Potro prior to this match, while Hewitt - after a thriller in round one against Wawrinka - played an injured Gasquet and then rolled over Melzer. Hewitt's playing well right now, but I don't see him beating Federer tomorrow, even though Fed is by no means playing great.
Roger Federer over Nicolas Almagro 6-3, 3-6, 6-2
Almagro came into this match playing great tennis (three straight-set wins over Mayer, Ljubicic, and Nieminen) and Federer has been playing uninspiring tennis in Cincinnati, but I still didn't give the Spaniard much of a chance in this one. Of couse, I didn't expect Federer to continue to play this bad, but I guess he did. He should not lose a 6-3 set to Almagro on hard courts; I don't care if Almagro is at the top of his game or not. Nonetheless, Federer has always owned Hewitt and I expect it to be no different tomorrow. As for Almagro, I have higher hopes for him at the Open than I did heading in to Cincinnati.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
25 U.S. Open Contenders (cont'd)
A lot has happened since I began these rankings with #25 two weeks ago, so it's time for some revised/extra analysis.
David Ferrer belongs on this list due to his play in Cincinnati this week. His stellar return game is proving to stand up to big servers even on such a fast surface in Cincinnati. Right now I'd pick him over most of the guys I have ranked so far (25-11) in a match at the U.S. Open - of the guys already ranked I'd probably only consider taking Stepanek and Moya over Ferrer head-to-head.
Jonas Bjorkman would be out, replaced by 1) Ferrer and then probably 2) Nieminen.
Ivan Ljubicic is just playing terrible tennis right now and would barely squeak in to the top 25, if not all the way out.
Basically right now I'm looking at all the guys I have ranked and almost all of them seem to be ranked too high. But that also means that I can't find anyone to bump over over anyone. I guess Moya and Ferrero would be on the rise, although Ferrero got destroyed by Blake today. Who knows, at this rate maybe Sam Querrey deserves to be in there, more because these guys are stinking it up than the fact Querrey is playing great right now.
Maybe the bottom line is that there seems to be a huge gap between this motley crew and the guys coming up in the top 10.
David Ferrer belongs on this list due to his play in Cincinnati this week. His stellar return game is proving to stand up to big servers even on such a fast surface in Cincinnati. Right now I'd pick him over most of the guys I have ranked so far (25-11) in a match at the U.S. Open - of the guys already ranked I'd probably only consider taking Stepanek and Moya over Ferrer head-to-head.
Jonas Bjorkman would be out, replaced by 1) Ferrer and then probably 2) Nieminen.
Ivan Ljubicic is just playing terrible tennis right now and would barely squeak in to the top 25, if not all the way out.
Basically right now I'm looking at all the guys I have ranked and almost all of them seem to be ranked too high. But that also means that I can't find anyone to bump over over anyone. I guess Moya and Ferrero would be on the rise, although Ferrero got destroyed by Blake today. Who knows, at this rate maybe Sam Querrey deserves to be in there, more because these guys are stinking it up than the fact Querrey is playing great right now.
Maybe the bottom line is that there seems to be a huge gap between this motley crew and the guys coming up in the top 10.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Wednesday 'Nati Analysis
Carlos Moya over Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-1
I don't care if you had a feeling that Djokovic would be tired and ripe for an upset after last week, this is shocking any way you cut it. It's not that shocking that Moya won, but that score is just incredible. Did Djokovic tank? Some say he did but I doubt it. There's a difference between tanking and simply not being quite motivated enough (and tired). Plus Moya is no slouch on hard courts. He's been playing well pretty much everywhere this whole year, so we need to give Moya some credit rather than spend the whole time asking what was the deal with Djokovic.
Juan Monaco over Rafael Nadal 7-6 (7-5), 4-1, retired
Even before Djokovic bowed out, the tournament lost another one of its big stars in Nadal, who retired with a left forearm injury in the second set. Even in the tight set Nadal looked awful and was thoroughly outplayed. It will be interesting to see just what the status of the injury is, and fans should have a close eye on Nadal when he takes the court for the first time at the Open. Like in Moya's case, though, we must give some credit to Monaco. He is having an amazing year with three titles (all on clay) and a ranking that is skyrocketing. Nonetheless, you've got to think the door is open for Monaco's next opponent, Sam Querrey.
Sam Querrey over Mikhail Youzhny 5-7, 6-3, 6-4
I don't feel like scourging through Querrey's match history but I have to think this is the biggest win of his professional career. It's also the second straight match in which he's come back from a break down in the third set (first round against Gicquel). At a time when American tennis isn't exactly prospering, this provides at least a glimmer of hope (especially for the future). Plus with Nadal out of the way, this could be the springboard for a career-changing run by Querrey, as he goes up against Monaco next and then - if he wins - either Blake or Ferrero.
Nikolay Davydenko over Robby Ginepri 6-2, 6-7 (9-7), 6-3
Ginepri is just looking for victories - not moral victories - right now, but if there is such a thing this was one of 'em. I was shocked Ginepri even won his first match over Jonas Bjorkman (he hadn't won a single match in ages) and I'm almost as surprised that he made this one close. It's no secret that Davydenko has not been playing up to his standard recently, but still, Ginepri must be playing decent tennis. Plus it's nice to see that he didn't throw in the towel after the first set drubbing, and even better, saved match points in the second set 'breaker to eventually force a deciding third set.
I don't care if you had a feeling that Djokovic would be tired and ripe for an upset after last week, this is shocking any way you cut it. It's not that shocking that Moya won, but that score is just incredible. Did Djokovic tank? Some say he did but I doubt it. There's a difference between tanking and simply not being quite motivated enough (and tired). Plus Moya is no slouch on hard courts. He's been playing well pretty much everywhere this whole year, so we need to give Moya some credit rather than spend the whole time asking what was the deal with Djokovic.
Juan Monaco over Rafael Nadal 7-6 (7-5), 4-1, retired
Even before Djokovic bowed out, the tournament lost another one of its big stars in Nadal, who retired with a left forearm injury in the second set. Even in the tight set Nadal looked awful and was thoroughly outplayed. It will be interesting to see just what the status of the injury is, and fans should have a close eye on Nadal when he takes the court for the first time at the Open. Like in Moya's case, though, we must give some credit to Monaco. He is having an amazing year with three titles (all on clay) and a ranking that is skyrocketing. Nonetheless, you've got to think the door is open for Monaco's next opponent, Sam Querrey.
Sam Querrey over Mikhail Youzhny 5-7, 6-3, 6-4
I don't feel like scourging through Querrey's match history but I have to think this is the biggest win of his professional career. It's also the second straight match in which he's come back from a break down in the third set (first round against Gicquel). At a time when American tennis isn't exactly prospering, this provides at least a glimmer of hope (especially for the future). Plus with Nadal out of the way, this could be the springboard for a career-changing run by Querrey, as he goes up against Monaco next and then - if he wins - either Blake or Ferrero.
Nikolay Davydenko over Robby Ginepri 6-2, 6-7 (9-7), 6-3
Ginepri is just looking for victories - not moral victories - right now, but if there is such a thing this was one of 'em. I was shocked Ginepri even won his first match over Jonas Bjorkman (he hadn't won a single match in ages) and I'm almost as surprised that he made this one close. It's no secret that Davydenko has not been playing up to his standard recently, but still, Ginepri must be playing decent tennis. Plus it's nice to see that he didn't throw in the towel after the first set drubbing, and even better, saved match points in the second set 'breaker to eventually force a deciding third set.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Tuesday 'Nati Analysis
Jarkko Nieminen over Tommy Robredo 6-4, 6-1
I wrestled with the decision over who to pick in this one and fortunately I went with Nieminen. He is generally the better hard-court player of the two, but winning by such a convincing margin is surprising (even though Robredo hasn't exactly been playing well of late, despite what his victory a few weeks ago on clay would suggest). I initially had Nieminen in my top 25 U.S. Open contenders, but dropped him out. If I started over he would be in there. He's just a rock solid player who does nothing out of the ordinary but does everything well.
Andy Roddick over Fernando Verdasco 7-6 (7-3), 6-2
Roddick has now won the last six meetings between these two players. I was at the only one that was really close, last year's five-setter in the third round of the U.S. Open where Verdasco extended Roddick to five sets. The key in this one was Roddick saving both break points he faced in the first set and in the second set the serve - he completely dominated his service games in set two - was all Roddick needed.
Marcos Baghdatis over Andy Murray 6-1, 6-2
Clearly Murray is either still feeling the effects of his wrist injury or he's just rusty from having missed a few months. Whatever the case, there's not much you can take away from this match (unless you watched it) because clearly one of the players was not at full strength. Nonetheless, I like the way Baghdatis has been playing recently and I'm hoping he puts on a good show at the Open, just as he did last year in his one-for-the-ages loss to Agassi.
a few surprises today:
Juan Martin del Potro over Guillermo Canas 6-2, 6-2
and
Arnaud Clement over Paul-Henri Mathieu 6-4, 6-2
What!?!?!? Mathieu has been playing great and now he goes out and gets blown out by a fellow compatriot who has not been doing much at all? Crazy. And del Potro has plenty of talent (I saw him in Miami completely destroy Baghdatis in the third set of their match), but 2 and 2 of Canas is very surprising. Canas BETTER find the form he showed this spring and turn things around in time for the Open.
I wrestled with the decision over who to pick in this one and fortunately I went with Nieminen. He is generally the better hard-court player of the two, but winning by such a convincing margin is surprising (even though Robredo hasn't exactly been playing well of late, despite what his victory a few weeks ago on clay would suggest). I initially had Nieminen in my top 25 U.S. Open contenders, but dropped him out. If I started over he would be in there. He's just a rock solid player who does nothing out of the ordinary but does everything well.
Andy Roddick over Fernando Verdasco 7-6 (7-3), 6-2
Roddick has now won the last six meetings between these two players. I was at the only one that was really close, last year's five-setter in the third round of the U.S. Open where Verdasco extended Roddick to five sets. The key in this one was Roddick saving both break points he faced in the first set and in the second set the serve - he completely dominated his service games in set two - was all Roddick needed.
Marcos Baghdatis over Andy Murray 6-1, 6-2
Clearly Murray is either still feeling the effects of his wrist injury or he's just rusty from having missed a few months. Whatever the case, there's not much you can take away from this match (unless you watched it) because clearly one of the players was not at full strength. Nonetheless, I like the way Baghdatis has been playing recently and I'm hoping he puts on a good show at the Open, just as he did last year in his one-for-the-ages loss to Agassi.
a few surprises today:
Juan Martin del Potro over Guillermo Canas 6-2, 6-2
and
Arnaud Clement over Paul-Henri Mathieu 6-4, 6-2
What!?!?!? Mathieu has been playing great and now he goes out and gets blown out by a fellow compatriot who has not been doing much at all? Crazy. And del Potro has plenty of talent (I saw him in Miami completely destroy Baghdatis in the third set of their match), but 2 and 2 of Canas is very surprising. Canas BETTER find the form he showed this spring and turn things around in time for the Open.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Cincinnati Match Analysis
Nicolas Kiefer over Marat Safin 6-3, 7-6 (7-1)
I seriously I think I got worse at tennis for watching the second-set tiebreaker. Safin was beyond terrible and to say his effort level was uninspiring would be an understatement. Then again, what would you expect from the guy. At this rate I'd be stunned if Safin is still around at the U.S. Open when I'm there (Labor Day weekend).
David Ferrer over John Isner 7-6 (7-3), 6-3
Terrible. I really wanted Isner to win this one, but I doubt he would have defeated Stepanek in the next round anyway. Both Ferrer and Stepanek are terrible matchups for Isner, Ferrer because he has one of the best service returns in the game. It was essential for Isner to serve as well as he did in D.C. and that just didn't happen. He had to put more first serves in, because he won almost all of his first-serve points but he won less than half of the second-serve points. Oh well, hopefully he'll get a wild card and then a good draw at the U.S. Open.
I seriously I think I got worse at tennis for watching the second-set tiebreaker. Safin was beyond terrible and to say his effort level was uninspiring would be an understatement. Then again, what would you expect from the guy. At this rate I'd be stunned if Safin is still around at the U.S. Open when I'm there (Labor Day weekend).
David Ferrer over John Isner 7-6 (7-3), 6-3
Terrible. I really wanted Isner to win this one, but I doubt he would have defeated Stepanek in the next round anyway. Both Ferrer and Stepanek are terrible matchups for Isner, Ferrer because he has one of the best service returns in the game. It was essential for Isner to serve as well as he did in D.C. and that just didn't happen. He had to put more first serves in, because he won almost all of his first-serve points but he won less than half of the second-serve points. Oh well, hopefully he'll get a wild card and then a good draw at the U.S. Open.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Cincinnati Draw
I'm not quite as pumped about this one as I was the AMS Montreal draw, but 'Nati still looks pretty darn good. One thing of note is that assuming neither one pulls out due to fatigue, Federer and Djokovic are on the same side would therefore meet in the semis. Federer's quarter is beyond easy, but Djokovic has guys like Canas, Hewitt, and Gasquet in his, so he won't come out of there if he isn't fully recovered from a grueling week in Montreal. On the other side I'm intrigued by a potential Roddick-Stepanek quarterfinal in the top quarter, and the bottom quarter is jam-packed with talent but also filled with question marks (Gonzalez, Safin, Blake, Nadal to name four).
Some notable first-round matchups:
John Isner vs. David Ferrer - Isner's third-set-tiebreaker run in D.C. will not soon be forgotten and the pro-American crowd will surely come out and support him in this one. Another tiebreaker-laden duel could be in store here. Ferrer is not great on hard courts, but he has a solid baseline game and is very quick around the court so I don't see Isner breaking too many times if at all. But I also don't see Ferrer doing much with Isner's serve.
Marat Safin vs. Nicolas Kiefer - Safin has been consistently mediocre this year (and that's putting it nicely) and Kiefer is just coming back from injury but is already playing well. I'm picking Safin, but doing so reluctantly. Safin has much more talent and should dictate play, but Kiefer is way, way stronger mentally and will win if he gains an early advantage.
Tommy Haas vs. Mario Ancic - Normally this would be more like a third-round clash at the earliest, but both players (especially Ancic) are returning from missed time. If Ancic serves well I think he can force at least one tiebreaker, but he is clearly not all the way back yet whereas Haas should be about 100-percent. Either way, this match will answer some questions. I like Haas in straights.
and some intriguing potential middle-round matchups:
Safin vs. Gonzalez
Roddick vs. Stepanek
Nadal vs. Youzhny
Predictions:
The issue here is with Federer and Djokovic. As of now I assume they will both remain in the tournament and Fed's quarter is easy enough for him to cruise through it without any problem even if he's tired. I can't say the same for Djokovic.
All things being equal I would have what I consider to be the Big Four (on hard courts at least) of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Roddick in the semi-finals. But for now I'm taking Hewitt to come out of Djokovic's quarter to reach the semis, where he will get crushed by Federer as usual. I'll then take Federer over Roddick, who will beat Nadal in a three-set thriller.
Some notable first-round matchups:
John Isner vs. David Ferrer - Isner's third-set-tiebreaker run in D.C. will not soon be forgotten and the pro-American crowd will surely come out and support him in this one. Another tiebreaker-laden duel could be in store here. Ferrer is not great on hard courts, but he has a solid baseline game and is very quick around the court so I don't see Isner breaking too many times if at all. But I also don't see Ferrer doing much with Isner's serve.
Marat Safin vs. Nicolas Kiefer - Safin has been consistently mediocre this year (and that's putting it nicely) and Kiefer is just coming back from injury but is already playing well. I'm picking Safin, but doing so reluctantly. Safin has much more talent and should dictate play, but Kiefer is way, way stronger mentally and will win if he gains an early advantage.
Tommy Haas vs. Mario Ancic - Normally this would be more like a third-round clash at the earliest, but both players (especially Ancic) are returning from missed time. If Ancic serves well I think he can force at least one tiebreaker, but he is clearly not all the way back yet whereas Haas should be about 100-percent. Either way, this match will answer some questions. I like Haas in straights.
and some intriguing potential middle-round matchups:
Safin vs. Gonzalez
Roddick vs. Stepanek
Nadal vs. Youzhny
Predictions:
The issue here is with Federer and Djokovic. As of now I assume they will both remain in the tournament and Fed's quarter is easy enough for him to cruise through it without any problem even if he's tired. I can't say the same for Djokovic.
All things being equal I would have what I consider to be the Big Four (on hard courts at least) of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Roddick in the semi-finals. But for now I'm taking Hewitt to come out of Djokovic's quarter to reach the semis, where he will get crushed by Federer as usual. I'll then take Federer over Roddick, who will beat Nadal in a three-set thriller.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Friday Montreal Match Analysis
Roger Federer over Lleyton Hewitt 6-3, 6-4
Federer has always owned Hewitt so this scoreline is about as good as the Aussie could have expected. It would have been a bigger blowout had Federer put more first serves in, as he won 88% of the points on his first serve and just 33% on his second. There were some hard-fought points and the quality of play was solid overall, but Federer was never really threatened.
Novak Djokovic over Andy Roddick 7-6 (7-4), 6-4
I had Djokovic reaching the finals in my initial tournament predictions but then I flip-flopped and took Roddick in this match. Poor decision. Djokovic served extremely well and didn't let Roddick's first serve get the best of him too often. The result was that Djokovic now looks like arguably the biggest threat to Federer on hard courts.
Rafael Nadal over Frank Dancevic 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
I thought this was going to be straight sets, but hometown hero Dancevic continued his amazing summer play by thrilling the Canadian crowd with a first-set stunner. Not as surprising was the fact that Nadal quickley asserted himself in the second and third. Fans have to be glad that Dancevic didn't deprive them of a Nadal-Djokovic semi-final, but you still have to give the guy credit for hanging tough under intense pressure.
Federer has always owned Hewitt so this scoreline is about as good as the Aussie could have expected. It would have been a bigger blowout had Federer put more first serves in, as he won 88% of the points on his first serve and just 33% on his second. There were some hard-fought points and the quality of play was solid overall, but Federer was never really threatened.
Novak Djokovic over Andy Roddick 7-6 (7-4), 6-4
I had Djokovic reaching the finals in my initial tournament predictions but then I flip-flopped and took Roddick in this match. Poor decision. Djokovic served extremely well and didn't let Roddick's first serve get the best of him too often. The result was that Djokovic now looks like arguably the biggest threat to Federer on hard courts.
Rafael Nadal over Frank Dancevic 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
I thought this was going to be straight sets, but hometown hero Dancevic continued his amazing summer play by thrilling the Canadian crowd with a first-set stunner. Not as surprising was the fact that Nadal quickley asserted himself in the second and third. Fans have to be glad that Dancevic didn't deprive them of a Nadal-Djokovic semi-final, but you still have to give the guy credit for hanging tough under intense pressure.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Thursday Montreal Match Analysis
Frank Dancevic over Fernando Verdasco 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
I thought this match was a toss-up going in as bother players were playing well; Dancevic shockingly reached the finals in L.A. and Verdasco had solid performances in Stuttgart and Kitzbuhel and then won a Challenger event last week. I gave the slight edge to the Spaniard because I thought Dancevic might wilt under the pressure of playing for the Canadian crowd. But alas, Dancevic rose to the occasion and thrilled the fans with a three-set victory, continuing his surprising summer run. It was nice to see him show so much emotion at the end; you could tell it meant a lot, a lot more than it would have to Verdasco if he had prevailed.
Novak Djokovic over David Nalbandian 6-2, 6-3
Behind Federer it looks like a trio of Nadal, Roddick, and Djokovic has separated itself from the rest of the pack, at least on hard courts. Both Roddick and Djokovic made a case for being Federer's main challenge on the hard stuff, as Roddick also enjoyed a relatively easy win (over Baghdatis). Nalbandian hasn't been playing well, but still this is impressive. Next round is Djokovic vs. Roddick; what a blockbuster that will be.
Lleyton Hewitt over Dominik Hrbaty 6-7 (12-10), 7-6 (8-6), 7-5
Mental toughness must have been the deciding factor in this thriller, and Hewitt is second to none in that department. He saved two match points in the second set before coming back from a break down twice in the third set (of course breaks were almost as common as holds in this one so that isn't too surprising). I am surprised by how close Hrbaty made this match. He hasn't exactly been lighting it up on tour in 2007. Unfortunately I didn't see this match, as I would like to know whether or not Hrbaty is suddenly playing good tennis or if Hewitt is struggling a bit.
Rafael Nadal over Paul-Henrti Mathieu 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Mathieu had Nadal on the ropes, but like Hewitt, Nadal is almost impossible to put away and he stormed back in the second and third sets. Mathieu is one of the hottest players on tour right now so it's not like people should question why Nadal was extended to three sets; actually this is a solid win for Nadal. He played well - not incredibly - and his forehand broke down somewhat, but Nadal still has to like where he's at heading into the Open, especially if he reaches the final and plays Federer close.
I thought this match was a toss-up going in as bother players were playing well; Dancevic shockingly reached the finals in L.A. and Verdasco had solid performances in Stuttgart and Kitzbuhel and then won a Challenger event last week. I gave the slight edge to the Spaniard because I thought Dancevic might wilt under the pressure of playing for the Canadian crowd. But alas, Dancevic rose to the occasion and thrilled the fans with a three-set victory, continuing his surprising summer run. It was nice to see him show so much emotion at the end; you could tell it meant a lot, a lot more than it would have to Verdasco if he had prevailed.
Novak Djokovic over David Nalbandian 6-2, 6-3
Behind Federer it looks like a trio of Nadal, Roddick, and Djokovic has separated itself from the rest of the pack, at least on hard courts. Both Roddick and Djokovic made a case for being Federer's main challenge on the hard stuff, as Roddick also enjoyed a relatively easy win (over Baghdatis). Nalbandian hasn't been playing well, but still this is impressive. Next round is Djokovic vs. Roddick; what a blockbuster that will be.
Lleyton Hewitt over Dominik Hrbaty 6-7 (12-10), 7-6 (8-6), 7-5
Mental toughness must have been the deciding factor in this thriller, and Hewitt is second to none in that department. He saved two match points in the second set before coming back from a break down twice in the third set (of course breaks were almost as common as holds in this one so that isn't too surprising). I am surprised by how close Hrbaty made this match. He hasn't exactly been lighting it up on tour in 2007. Unfortunately I didn't see this match, as I would like to know whether or not Hrbaty is suddenly playing good tennis or if Hewitt is struggling a bit.
Rafael Nadal over Paul-Henrti Mathieu 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Mathieu had Nadal on the ropes, but like Hewitt, Nadal is almost impossible to put away and he stormed back in the second and third sets. Mathieu is one of the hottest players on tour right now so it's not like people should question why Nadal was extended to three sets; actually this is a solid win for Nadal. He played well - not incredibly - and his forehand broke down somewhat, but Nadal still has to like where he's at heading into the Open, especially if he reaches the final and plays Federer close.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
25 U.S. Open Contenders
In addition to ranking the top 25 contenders on the U.S. Open page, I'll provide some extra comments and updates here, because as we all know, things can change in between the time I rank a player and the start of the U.S. Open...
#25: Jonas Bjorkman
I'll admit this was an ambitious choice, though I will feel pretty good about it as long as he doesn't get a terrible draw. I'd like to see Bjorkman get some singles matches in on the hard courts prior to the Open to see how he's playing. That said, I'm even more interested in the Bjorkman-Mirnyi doubles team. They're my favorite squad outside the Bryan Brothers and it would be great to see them get it back together, starting with Montreal.
#24: David Nalbandian
He beat Alejandro Falla and then posted a nice win over David Ferrer (both in straight sets no less), but then today he goes out and gets spanked by Djokovic 6-2, 6-3. Granted Djokovic is arguable the second best player in the world on hard courts right now, but still that scoreline is startling. The win over Ferrer makes me continue to think Nalbandian is worthy of his Top 25 spot, but the Djokovic blowout indicates that he is not close to elite status like he once was.
#25: Jonas Bjorkman
I'll admit this was an ambitious choice, though I will feel pretty good about it as long as he doesn't get a terrible draw. I'd like to see Bjorkman get some singles matches in on the hard courts prior to the Open to see how he's playing. That said, I'm even more interested in the Bjorkman-Mirnyi doubles team. They're my favorite squad outside the Bryan Brothers and it would be great to see them get it back together, starting with Montreal.
#24: David Nalbandian
He beat Alejandro Falla and then posted a nice win over David Ferrer (both in straight sets no less), but then today he goes out and gets spanked by Djokovic 6-2, 6-3. Granted Djokovic is arguable the second best player in the world on hard courts right now, but still that scoreline is startling. The win over Ferrer makes me continue to think Nalbandian is worthy of his Top 25 spot, but the Djokovic blowout indicates that he is not close to elite status like he once was.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
Wednesday Montreal Match Analysis
Roger Federer over Ivo Karlovic 7-6 (7-2), 7-6 (7-3): As you can probably guess, not only were there zero breaks of serve, but there were also zero break points faced. Still, Federer consistently held with much greater ease, as he lost only seven points on serve the entire match. The score line is not all that surprising and I doubt Federer ever felt really tested, but Ivo should still get some credit for holding his serve throughout and taking it to two 'breakers.
Fabio Fognini over Andy Murray 6-2, 6-2: His win over Ginepri in the first round probably gave Murray fans a sense of false hope. Clearly he is not close to returning to full strength after missing so much time. Unfortunately I think this result speaks volumes about the states of Murray and Ginepri rather than Fabio Fognini.
Rafael Nadal over Marat Safin 7-6 (7-4), 6-0: I didn't see it, but I imagine it could have been a tank-job in the second set. Then again, when Nadal seizes momentum he rarely gives his opponent even a glimmer of hope of getting back in the match. Losing set point chances in the first must have really demoralized Safin while pumping up Nadal. This bodes well for a potential Federer-Nadal final that many fans would like to see.
Fabio Fognini over Andy Murray 6-2, 6-2: His win over Ginepri in the first round probably gave Murray fans a sense of false hope. Clearly he is not close to returning to full strength after missing so much time. Unfortunately I think this result speaks volumes about the states of Murray and Ginepri rather than Fabio Fognini.
Rafael Nadal over Marat Safin 7-6 (7-4), 6-0: I didn't see it, but I imagine it could have been a tank-job in the second set. Then again, when Nadal seizes momentum he rarely gives his opponent even a glimmer of hope of getting back in the match. Losing set point chances in the first must have really demoralized Safin while pumping up Nadal. This bodes well for a potential Federer-Nadal final that many fans would like to see.
Tuesday Montreal Match Analysis
Radek Stepanek over Fernando Gonzalez 6-7 (7-2), 7-6 (7-1), 6-4: I picked Gonzalez in this match but that was definitely a heart-over-head pick. Stepanek destroyed Fernando at the French this year and if he can beat him on clay, he should have no trouble doing the same on hard. Plus Stepanek has been solid of late, since returning from injury, including his semi-final loss to Roddick in Washington 7-5 in the third. Fernando has all the talent in the world and he was realizing it early in the year (especially in Australia) but at this point in the season Stepanek is simply playing better.
Fernando Verdasco over Juan Igancio Chela 3-6, 6-1, 6-3: Chela has been nothing short of terrible recently, so this comes as no surprise at all. Both are actually pretty decent on hard courts even though they're clay-courters by nature, but Verdasco has enjoyed much better results at the Open--he lost to Roddick in five sets in the third round last year. It looks like Chela will be one-and-done in New York this year.
Andy Murray over Robby Ginepri 6-4, 6-4: This was Murray's first match since the AMS Hamburg when he retired against Volandri leading 5-1 in the first set. Ginepri, meanwhile, has now lost in the first round of his last four tournaments and hasn't won a match since Queen's Club. I imagine this match must have consisted of some pretty bad tennis.
Marcos Baghdatis over Carlos Moya 7-6 (9-7), 6-1: Both of these guys should do quite well at the Open and this score is about what I expected, although a bit more lopsided in the second. Bagman's match with Agassi last year at the Open was unforgettable and he should be a crowd favorite there (outside of U.S. players) this time, so it's nice to see him playing well heading into the tournament.
Mario Ancic over Frederic Niemeyer 6-4, 6-2: This was just Ancic's ninth match of the entire year and his first win since the third round of the Australian Open. Obviously he's at least playing decent, but I doubt he'll be any kind of factor at the Open having missed this much time.
Ivo Karlovic over Max Mirnyi 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (7-3): Is anyone surprised the matchup of these two behemoths went to a third-set tiebreaker?
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