Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Day 3 U.S. Open Matches

John Isner over Rik De Voest 6-3, 6-3, 7-6 (7-4)
Isner's serve was way too much for the German, so the Isner Legend (as the USOpen.org calls it) continues. The 6-9 American wild card actually lost serve today, but it was at 5-1 in the second set so he just must have lost focus. Isner had chances to break in the second set, but clearly he couldn't stand the thought of playing a tennis match that didn't involve a tiebreaker. The first five points of the 'breaker were RIDICULOUS - in term's of both Isner's play and one point of net-cord luck. He got up 5-0, lost the next four, then served two bombs to take it 7-4. Next up is a third-round showdown with Roger Federer. I will be at the match! I'm hoping for Saturday night on Arthur Ashe....

Roger Federer over Paul Capedeville 6-1, 6-4, 6-4
Even Federer said he played well, and when that happens, you know he must have been on fire. He was. 45 winners and 11 unforced errors!?!? Wow. Capedeville even played well in the third set and never had a remote chance. And I think I'll mention it again: Federer-Isner on Saturday and I'll be in attendance.

Robby Ginepri over Oliver Rochus 6-0, 6-3, 6-1
OK I thought Ginepri had a good chance it this one, but this scoreline is just ridiculous. I mean Ginepri has barely won matches this year, much less ones this lopsided. Granted Rochus has been close to terrible over the past four months, but still he is still a formidable opponent. Rochus also has enjoyed some really good Opens in the past as well. Not this time; Ginepri had way too much game for him on this day. Big Shot Bob always seems to find his game this time of year. Could he be finding it again?

Marat Safin over Frank Dancevic 7-5, 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (9-7)
I had Dancevic in this one that was more of a don't-wanna-get-my-hopes-up-about-Safin pick. I did think Dancevic had a real good chance though; he's had a great summer and Safin has been anything but the Safin of old throughout this year. By all indications, however, Safin played great tennis today and more importantly, sported a strong mental game. Pulling out three close sets certainly would suggest that. Safin has Wawrinka next and he'll have to play just like he did today to pull that one out. I'm hoping for a Safin-Ginepri third round clash, and hoping they'll throw it on Armstrong as opposed to Ashe.

Day 2 U.S. Open Matches

Xavier Malisse over Kristian Pless 6-4, 6-7 (7-5), 6-3, 7-5
I didn't even think Malisse was in the draw this year. Where has he been? Well, it's not like beating Pless 7-5 in the fourth is some kind of extraordinary accomplishment, but it's certainly a good sign for Malisse. Malisse always - and I mean always - seems to be around over Labor Day weekend at the Open, and he actually has a decent chance to be there again. He has David Nalbandian next, and Nalbandian has not exactly been lighting up the tennis courts in 2007.

Stefan Koubek over Sam Querrey 7-6 (7-1), 6-1, 6-1
What a stunning disappointment for Querrey. I mean this is really bad. The loss itself is bad, but the way it happened is even worse. Querrey squandered six match points in the first set before losing in a tiebreaker, and then he just completely went away. He was done after the first set and just went through the motions in the second and third. How else can you explain someone with that serve winning two games in two sets!? And Querrey had been playing well prior to this one....

Wayne Odesnik over Danai Udomchoke 6-7 (7-2), 6-3, 6-1, 3-6, 7-6 (7-2)
This is the third win in two days for American wild cards (Odesnik joined Isner and Donald Young in the second round) and surely Odesnik's biggest win of his career. He has been playing the best tennis of his career on the U.S. hard courts this summer (lost to Isner in the 3rd round of D.C. and then beat Ljubicic in Montreal) but this win was the biggest yet. Odesnik actually has a good chance to go one more round, as he gets Juan Ignacio Chela in the second round and Chela has been anything but stellar recently.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Day 1 U.S. Open Matches

Max Mirnyi over Marcos Baghdatis 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 7-6 (8-6)
Baghdatis just hasn't had as good of a year in 2007 as he did in 2006, although he started playing better during the U.S. Open Series. Mirnyi hasn't had great singles results in quite some time, though, so Bagman was the favorite in this one. But when Mirnyi comes to the net so often (I think he approached 140 times this match) against who player whose confidence isn't completely stable,the it can put overwhelming pressure on the opponent. Even though Max has long been more of a doubles star, he always seems to still be around in singles when I'm at the Open over Labor Day weekend. Hopefully he'll be able to beat Grosjean in round two and make yet another 3rd round appearance in singles.

Andy Murray over Pablo Cuevas 6-2, 6-3, 6-0
I always thought Murray's first-round match at the Open would tell us everything about his prospects in this tournament, and if that's the case, that's a glorious thing for Murray. I have no idea who Cuevas is, but if you win a match 2, 3, and 0 in the main draw of the Open, you have to be playing some decent tennis regardless of the opponent. Plus Cuevas came through qualifying so he must have been playing decent tennis. I don't think anyone's ready to proclaim Murray completely healthy, but obviously his wrist injury was getting better. Initially I thought Murray would have no chance against Bjorkman in the 2nd round (I was thinking ahead because I assumed he'd at least be able to beat Cuevas), but now I think he has a solid chance in that one and once he gets another match and more confidence under his belt, who knows what could happen if he prevails over Bjorkman.

Feliciano Lopez over Juan Carlos Ferrero 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
This isn't too much of a shock but the apparent ease with which Lopez did it certainly is. Ferrero had that one run to the U.S. Open final in 2003, but other than that he hasn't been too stellar on hard courts. Lopez, meanwhile, has the huge serve and power baseline game to thrive on the faster surfaces. So I guess we shouldn't be too surprised. After all, he also destroyed Ivan Ljubicic in the first round of last year's U.S. Open.

U.S. Open: Here We Go

Well the U.S. Open is finally upon us.

25 days ago I started my Top 25 contender list, and due to the passing of time and the release of the draw, here's how I'd change it to make a final Top 25.

Federer and Djokovic obviously stay at 1 and 2, as I did those both after the draw came out and I think Djokovic can get through it to the final despite how difficult it is.

I'd move Blake up to #3; he is in a soft quarter and has to be considered the favorite to come out of there and make the semis.

Nadal would move up to #4. He's probably in the most TALENTED quarter, but nobody in there is playing good tennis right now so Nadal should be able to take advantage.

Hewitt needs to be bumped down since he'd play Djokovic in the 4th round, but maybe not any below #5. Most likely he'll either win three matches, or he'll win 5 or 6. If he gets past Djokovic, he has a great chance of making the final. But that's a tall order to get past the Djoker.

Davydenko probably #6. He's in Blake's quarter and has a decent chance to make the semis.

Roddick has to plummet down to #7. Simply because he would have Federer in the quarters; that's just rough. Of course if he pulls off the shocker, he could be considered the favorite to win it all depending on how Djoker is looking on the other half of the draw.

more to come...

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Sunday 'Nati Analysis

Roger Federer d. James Blake 6-1, 6-4
I foolish thought Blake had a chance in this one (at least to make it close, it wasn't like I was picking him to win the match), but that was clearly not the case. Federer's game picked up considerably from where it had been throughout the tournament and Blake's fell off a long way from where it was against Ferrero and Davydenko (and the last two sets against Querrey); of course Federer had a little bit to do with that. In any case, it was a terrible match and there's really nothing else to say about it. Federer is just a lot better than Blake. Period.

As for what this means about each player's prospects at the U.S. Open: well Federer always has been the favorite, and now his critics who think Djokovic has the edge at the Open should probably rethink themselves. I'm not guaranteeing a Federer victory like we all did in the past, but as long as he plays close to his best he will beat Djokovic or anyone else.

Blake has never made it past the quarterfinals of a major. As long as his forehand is on fire like it was against Davydenko, he should make it back to that stage, but no further.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Saturday 'Nati Analysis

James Blake over Nikolay Davydenko 6-4, 6-2
Davydenko came out hot, picking up right where he left off with his destruction of David Ferrer in the quarters. After his early 2-0 lead, however, it was all Blake all the time. I'm not sure what the deal was with Davydenko, but his game fell off a ton the rest of the match. Obviously there's not a lot most guys can do when Blake is on - and Blake was definitely on tonight - but Davydenko still could have at least made it a match. In any case, a combination of Blake's overwhelming power from the baseline and Davydenko's surprising frustration level (he rarely shows emotion) brought the Russian down. There were several great baseline slugfests during the match, but Blake's monster forehand pretty much controlled play throughout the night. If anyone saw the match, you know that was one of the most ridiculous match-clinching shots in history. If you didn't I suggest watching SportsCenter because it's hard to describe in words; but Blake hit an on-the-full-run stretch forehand slap cross-court that blew past an outstretched Davydenko, who had just hit a nasty approach shot. It was an appropriate way to end the day for Blake.

Roger Federer over Lleyton Hewitt 6-3, 6-7 (9-7), 7-6 (7-1)

While this wasn't quite as amazing as the score would indicate, it was still a very good match. Both players stunk it up in the first set, but both the second and third sets were high quality, for the most part. Hewitt was more consistent and I thought he deserved to win the match, but you know how Federer turns things up at the right times. Hewitt, though, also played some incredibly clutch tennis. Among other huge shots, he saved a match point in the second-set tiebreaker with an incredible drop-volley. Hewitt got up a break early in the third to take a 3-2 lead, but Federer - as he always does - got it right back with some stellar, aggressive play. Really the only to periods of the match where Federer really played great were that game in which he broke back and the third-set tiebreaker (Hewitt also folded in the 'breaker). Other than that, Federer was only decent at best. At most tournaments, Federer traditionally wins ugly in his first few matches and then really heats up, but that hasn't happened yet and I don't see it happening. If Blake can get past Davydenko tonight, I think he has a real chance to beat Federer, or at least make it closer than he usually does. As for Davydenko, he would also have a chance, but I just don't think he has the belief necessary to beat Federer (or any of the other top three players), whereas Blake does.

Friday, August 17, 2007

Friday 'Nati Analysis

James Blake over Sam Querrey 5-7, 6-4, 6-4
Querrey won the first set 7-5 but it felt more like 6-2. He was serving well, hitting a heavy forehand, and basically just played really smart. Blake was having an awful time with his forehand and Querrey kept the ball in play and let Blake miss, while going for his big shots at the right times. In the second and third Blake basically just completely turned things around. He made 24 errors in the first set and just four in the second. Querrey played one loose service game in each of the last two sets and that was the main difference. He didn't play much worse than he did in the first two sets, Blake just turned up his game a level - or five. You probably know that when Blake's forehand gets on fire, it really gets on fire.

Nikolay Davydenko over David Ferrer 6-2, 6-4
Well Ferrer finally came back to earth today. I almost picked him in this one due to his run in Cincinnati (highlighted by the win over Roddick) and Davydenko's relatively poor play of late, but fortunately I thought better of it and sided with the better hard-court player. Basically these two have similar games, and on slick hard courts, Davydenko can do everything Ferrer can do and do it better. Ferrer just never sank his teeth into this match, and his mental game quickly followed the downward spiral started by his physical game. It's nice to see Davydenko playing well again (and being able to put the gambling issue behind him - what happened to that story being news, anyway?) and perhaps giving us another real contender to make a deep run at the Open.

Lleyton Hewitt over Carlos Moya 6-2, 6-4

I had Hewitt with a decent amount of confidence in this one, but I thought it would be a little bit closer. The Aussie had a few things going in his favour even before this one. First, while Moya is fine with this kind of fast hard court, Hewitt absolutely loves it. Furthermore, Moya had to go through Nalbandian, Djokovic, and a 7-5 in the third win over Del Potro prior to this match, while Hewitt - after a thriller in round one against Wawrinka - played an injured Gasquet and then rolled over Melzer. Hewitt's playing well right now, but I don't see him beating Federer tomorrow, even though Fed is by no means playing great.

Roger Federer over Nicolas Almagro 6-3, 3-6, 6-2
Almagro came into this match playing great tennis (three straight-set wins over Mayer, Ljubicic, and Nieminen) and Federer has been playing uninspiring tennis in Cincinnati, but I still didn't give the Spaniard much of a chance in this one. Of couse, I didn't expect Federer to continue to play this bad, but I guess he did. He should not lose a 6-3 set to Almagro on hard courts; I don't care if Almagro is at the top of his game or not. Nonetheless, Federer has always owned Hewitt and I expect it to be no different tomorrow. As for Almagro, I have higher hopes for him at the Open than I did heading in to Cincinnati.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

25 U.S. Open Contenders (cont'd)

A lot has happened since I began these rankings with #25 two weeks ago, so it's time for some revised/extra analysis.

David Ferrer belongs on this list due to his play in Cincinnati this week. His stellar return game is proving to stand up to big servers even on such a fast surface in Cincinnati. Right now I'd pick him over most of the guys I have ranked so far (25-11) in a match at the U.S. Open - of the guys already ranked I'd probably only consider taking Stepanek and Moya over Ferrer head-to-head.

Jonas Bjorkman would be out, replaced by 1) Ferrer and then probably 2) Nieminen.

Ivan Ljubicic is just playing terrible tennis right now and would barely squeak in to the top 25, if not all the way out.

Basically right now I'm looking at all the guys I have ranked and almost all of them seem to be ranked too high. But that also means that I can't find anyone to bump over over anyone. I guess Moya and Ferrero would be on the rise, although Ferrero got destroyed by Blake today. Who knows, at this rate maybe Sam Querrey deserves to be in there, more because these guys are stinking it up than the fact Querrey is playing great right now.

Maybe the bottom line is that there seems to be a huge gap between this motley crew and the guys coming up in the top 10.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Wednesday 'Nati Analysis

Carlos Moya over Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-1
I don't care if you had a feeling that Djokovic would be tired and ripe for an upset after last week, this is shocking any way you cut it. It's not that shocking that Moya won, but that score is just incredible. Did Djokovic tank? Some say he did but I doubt it. There's a difference between tanking and simply not being quite motivated enough (and tired). Plus Moya is no slouch on hard courts. He's been playing well pretty much everywhere this whole year, so we need to give Moya some credit rather than spend the whole time asking what was the deal with Djokovic.

Juan Monaco over Rafael Nadal 7-6 (7-5), 4-1, retired
Even before Djokovic bowed out, the tournament lost another one of its big stars in Nadal, who retired with a left forearm injury in the second set. Even in the tight set Nadal looked awful and was thoroughly outplayed. It will be interesting to see just what the status of the injury is, and fans should have a close eye on Nadal when he takes the court for the first time at the Open. Like in Moya's case, though, we must give some credit to Monaco. He is having an amazing year with three titles (all on clay) and a ranking that is skyrocketing. Nonetheless, you've got to think the door is open for Monaco's next opponent, Sam Querrey.

Sam Querrey over Mikhail Youzhny 5-7, 6-3, 6-4
I don't feel like scourging through Querrey's match history but I have to think this is the biggest win of his professional career. It's also the second straight match in which he's come back from a break down in the third set (first round against Gicquel). At a time when American tennis isn't exactly prospering, this provides at least a glimmer of hope (especially for the future). Plus with Nadal out of the way, this could be the springboard for a career-changing run by Querrey, as he goes up against Monaco next and then - if he wins - either Blake or Ferrero.

Nikolay Davydenko over Robby Ginepri 6-2, 6-7 (9-7), 6-3
Ginepri is just looking for victories - not moral victories - right now, but if there is such a thing this was one of 'em. I was shocked Ginepri even won his first match over Jonas Bjorkman (he hadn't won a single match in ages) and I'm almost as surprised that he made this one close. It's no secret that Davydenko has not been playing up to his standard recently, but still, Ginepri must be playing decent tennis. Plus it's nice to see that he didn't throw in the towel after the first set drubbing, and even better, saved match points in the second set 'breaker to eventually force a deciding third set.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Tuesday 'Nati Analysis

Jarkko Nieminen over Tommy Robredo 6-4, 6-1
I wrestled with the decision over who to pick in this one and fortunately I went with Nieminen. He is generally the better hard-court player of the two, but winning by such a convincing margin is surprising (even though Robredo hasn't exactly been playing well of late, despite what his victory a few weeks ago on clay would suggest). I initially had Nieminen in my top 25 U.S. Open contenders, but dropped him out. If I started over he would be in there. He's just a rock solid player who does nothing out of the ordinary but does everything well.

Andy Roddick over Fernando Verdasco 7-6 (7-3), 6-2
Roddick has now won the last six meetings between these two players. I was at the only one that was really close, last year's five-setter in the third round of the U.S. Open where Verdasco extended Roddick to five sets. The key in this one was Roddick saving both break points he faced in the first set and in the second set the serve - he completely dominated his service games in set two - was all Roddick needed.

Marcos Baghdatis over Andy Murray 6-1, 6-2
Clearly Murray is either still feeling the effects of his wrist injury or he's just rusty from having missed a few months. Whatever the case, there's not much you can take away from this match (unless you watched it) because clearly one of the players was not at full strength. Nonetheless, I like the way Baghdatis has been playing recently and I'm hoping he puts on a good show at the Open, just as he did last year in his one-for-the-ages loss to Agassi.

a few surprises today:
Juan Martin del Potro over Guillermo Canas 6-2, 6-2
and
Arnaud Clement over Paul-Henri Mathieu 6-4, 6-2
What!?!?!? Mathieu has been playing great and now he goes out and gets blown out by a fellow compatriot who has not been doing much at all? Crazy. And del Potro has plenty of talent (I saw him in Miami completely destroy Baghdatis in the third set of their match), but 2 and 2 of Canas is very surprising. Canas BETTER find the form he showed this spring and turn things around in time for the Open.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Cincinnati Match Analysis

Nicolas Kiefer over Marat Safin 6-3, 7-6 (7-1)
I seriously I think I got worse at tennis for watching the second-set tiebreaker. Safin was beyond terrible and to say his effort level was uninspiring would be an understatement. Then again, what would you expect from the guy. At this rate I'd be stunned if Safin is still around at the U.S. Open when I'm there (Labor Day weekend).

David Ferrer over John Isner 7-6 (7-3), 6-3
Terrible. I really wanted Isner to win this one, but I doubt he would have defeated Stepanek in the next round anyway. Both Ferrer and Stepanek are terrible matchups for Isner, Ferrer because he has one of the best service returns in the game. It was essential for Isner to serve as well as he did in D.C. and that just didn't happen. He had to put more first serves in, because he won almost all of his first-serve points but he won less than half of the second-serve points. Oh well, hopefully he'll get a wild card and then a good draw at the U.S. Open.

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Cincinnati Draw

I'm not quite as pumped about this one as I was the AMS Montreal draw, but 'Nati still looks pretty darn good. One thing of note is that assuming neither one pulls out due to fatigue, Federer and Djokovic are on the same side would therefore meet in the semis. Federer's quarter is beyond easy, but Djokovic has guys like Canas, Hewitt, and Gasquet in his, so he won't come out of there if he isn't fully recovered from a grueling week in Montreal. On the other side I'm intrigued by a potential Roddick-Stepanek quarterfinal in the top quarter, and the bottom quarter is jam-packed with talent but also filled with question marks (Gonzalez, Safin, Blake, Nadal to name four).

Some notable first-round matchups:

John Isner vs. David Ferrer - Isner's third-set-tiebreaker run in D.C. will not soon be forgotten and the pro-American crowd will surely come out and support him in this one. Another tiebreaker-laden duel could be in store here. Ferrer is not great on hard courts, but he has a solid baseline game and is very quick around the court so I don't see Isner breaking too many times if at all. But I also don't see Ferrer doing much with Isner's serve.

Marat Safin vs. Nicolas Kiefer - Safin has been consistently mediocre this year (and that's putting it nicely) and Kiefer is just coming back from injury but is already playing well. I'm picking Safin, but doing so reluctantly. Safin has much more talent and should dictate play, but Kiefer is way, way stronger mentally and will win if he gains an early advantage.

Tommy Haas vs. Mario Ancic - Normally this would be more like a third-round clash at the earliest, but both players (especially Ancic) are returning from missed time. If Ancic serves well I think he can force at least one tiebreaker, but he is clearly not all the way back yet whereas Haas should be about 100-percent. Either way, this match will answer some questions. I like Haas in straights.

and some intriguing potential middle-round matchups:
Safin vs. Gonzalez
Roddick vs. Stepanek
Nadal vs. Youzhny

Predictions:
The issue here is with Federer and Djokovic. As of now I assume they will both remain in the tournament and Fed's quarter is easy enough for him to cruise through it without any problem even if he's tired. I can't say the same for Djokovic.

All things being equal I would have what I consider to be the Big Four (on hard courts at least) of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Roddick in the semi-finals. But for now I'm taking Hewitt to come out of Djokovic's quarter to reach the semis, where he will get crushed by Federer as usual. I'll then take Federer over Roddick, who will beat Nadal in a three-set thriller.

Saturday, August 11, 2007

Friday Montreal Match Analysis

Roger Federer over Lleyton Hewitt 6-3, 6-4
Federer has always owned Hewitt so this scoreline is about as good as the Aussie could have expected. It would have been a bigger blowout had Federer put more first serves in, as he won 88% of the points on his first serve and just 33% on his second. There were some hard-fought points and the quality of play was solid overall, but Federer was never really threatened.

Novak Djokovic over Andy Roddick 7-6 (7-4), 6-4
I had Djokovic reaching the finals in my initial tournament predictions but then I flip-flopped and took Roddick in this match. Poor decision. Djokovic served extremely well and didn't let Roddick's first serve get the best of him too often. The result was that Djokovic now looks like arguably the biggest threat to Federer on hard courts.

Rafael Nadal over Frank Dancevic 4-6, 6-2, 6-3
I thought this was going to be straight sets, but hometown hero Dancevic continued his amazing summer play by thrilling the Canadian crowd with a first-set stunner. Not as surprising was the fact that Nadal quickley asserted himself in the second and third. Fans have to be glad that Dancevic didn't deprive them of a Nadal-Djokovic semi-final, but you still have to give the guy credit for hanging tough under intense pressure.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Thursday Montreal Match Analysis

Frank Dancevic over Fernando Verdasco 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
I thought this match was a toss-up going in as bother players were playing well; Dancevic shockingly reached the finals in L.A. and Verdasco had solid performances in Stuttgart and Kitzbuhel and then won a Challenger event last week. I gave the slight edge to the Spaniard because I thought Dancevic might wilt under the pressure of playing for the Canadian crowd. But alas, Dancevic rose to the occasion and thrilled the fans with a three-set victory, continuing his surprising summer run. It was nice to see him show so much emotion at the end; you could tell it meant a lot, a lot more than it would have to Verdasco if he had prevailed.

Novak Djokovic over David Nalbandian 6-2, 6-3
Behind Federer it looks like a trio of Nadal, Roddick, and Djokovic has separated itself from the rest of the pack, at least on hard courts. Both Roddick and Djokovic made a case for being Federer's main challenge on the hard stuff, as Roddick also enjoyed a relatively easy win (over Baghdatis). Nalbandian hasn't been playing well, but still this is impressive. Next round is Djokovic vs. Roddick; what a blockbuster that will be.

Lleyton Hewitt over Dominik Hrbaty 6-7 (12-10), 7-6 (8-6), 7-5
Mental toughness must have been the deciding factor in this thriller, and Hewitt is second to none in that department. He saved two match points in the second set before coming back from a break down twice in the third set (of course breaks were almost as common as holds in this one so that isn't too surprising). I am surprised by how close Hrbaty made this match. He hasn't exactly been lighting it up on tour in 2007. Unfortunately I didn't see this match, as I would like to know whether or not Hrbaty is suddenly playing good tennis or if Hewitt is struggling a bit.

Rafael Nadal over Paul-Henrti Mathieu 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Mathieu had Nadal on the ropes, but like Hewitt, Nadal is almost impossible to put away and he stormed back in the second and third sets. Mathieu is one of the hottest players on tour right now so it's not like people should question why Nadal was extended to three sets; actually this is a solid win for Nadal. He played well - not incredibly - and his forehand broke down somewhat, but Nadal still has to like where he's at heading into the Open, especially if he reaches the final and plays Federer close.

Thursday, August 9, 2007

25 U.S. Open Contenders

In addition to ranking the top 25 contenders on the U.S. Open page, I'll provide some extra comments and updates here, because as we all know, things can change in between the time I rank a player and the start of the U.S. Open...

#25: Jonas Bjorkman
I'll admit this was an ambitious choice, though I will feel pretty good about it as long as he doesn't get a terrible draw. I'd like to see Bjorkman get some singles matches in on the hard courts prior to the Open to see how he's playing. That said, I'm even more interested in the Bjorkman-Mirnyi doubles team. They're my favorite squad outside the Bryan Brothers and it would be great to see them get it back together, starting with Montreal.

#24: David Nalbandian
He beat Alejandro Falla and then posted a nice win over David Ferrer (both in straight sets no less), but then today he goes out and gets spanked by Djokovic 6-2, 6-3. Granted Djokovic is arguable the second best player in the world on hard courts right now, but still that scoreline is startling. The win over Ferrer makes me continue to think Nalbandian is worthy of his Top 25 spot, but the Djokovic blowout indicates that he is not close to elite status like he once was.

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Wednesday Montreal Match Analysis

Roger Federer over Ivo Karlovic 7-6 (7-2), 7-6 (7-3): As you can probably guess, not only were there zero breaks of serve, but there were also zero break points faced. Still, Federer consistently held with much greater ease, as he lost only seven points on serve the entire match. The score line is not all that surprising and I doubt Federer ever felt really tested, but Ivo should still get some credit for holding his serve throughout and taking it to two 'breakers.

Fabio Fognini over Andy Murray 6-2, 6-2: His win over Ginepri in the first round probably gave Murray fans a sense of false hope. Clearly he is not close to returning to full strength after missing so much time. Unfortunately I think this result speaks volumes about the states of Murray and Ginepri rather than Fabio Fognini.

Rafael Nadal over Marat Safin 7-6 (7-4), 6-0: I didn't see it, but I imagine it could have been a tank-job in the second set. Then again, when Nadal seizes momentum he rarely gives his opponent even a glimmer of hope of getting back in the match. Losing set point chances in the first must have really demoralized Safin while pumping up Nadal. This bodes well for a potential Federer-Nadal final that many fans would like to see.

Tuesday Montreal Match Analysis


Radek Stepanek over Fernando Gonzalez 6-7 (7-2), 7-6 (7-1), 6-4:
I picked Gonzalez in this match but that was definitely a heart-over-head pick. Stepanek destroyed Fernando at the French this year and if he can beat him on clay, he should have no trouble doing the same on hard. Plus Stepanek has been solid of late, since returning from injury, including his semi-final loss to Roddick in Washington 7-5 in the third. Fernando has all the talent in the world and he was realizing it early in the year (especially in Australia) but at this point in the season Stepanek is simply playing better.

Fernando Verdasco over Juan Igancio Chela 3-6, 6-1, 6-3: Chela has been nothing short of terrible recently, so this comes as no surprise at all. Both are actually pretty decent on hard courts even though they're clay-courters by nature, but Verdasco has enjoyed much better results at the Open--he lost to Roddick in five sets in the third round last year. It looks like Chela will be one-and-done in New York this year.

Andy Murray over Robby Ginepri 6-4, 6-4: This was Murray's first match since the AMS Hamburg when he retired against Volandri leading 5-1 in the first set. Ginepri, meanwhile, has now lost in the first round of his last four tournaments and hasn't won a match since Queen's Club. I imagine this match must have consisted of some pretty bad tennis.

Marcos Baghdatis over Carlos Moya 7-6 (9-7), 6-1: Both of these guys should do quite well at the Open and this score is about what I expected, although a bit more lopsided in the second. Bagman's match with Agassi last year at the Open was unforgettable and he should be a crowd favorite there (outside of U.S. players) this time, so it's nice to see him playing well heading into the tournament.

Mario Ancic over Frederic Niemeyer 6-4, 6-2: This was just Ancic's ninth match of the entire year and his first win since the third round of the Australian Open. Obviously he's at least playing decent, but I doubt he'll be any kind of factor at the Open having missed this much time.

Ivo Karlovic over Max Mirnyi 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (7-3): Is anyone surprised the matchup of these two behemoths went to a third-set tiebreaker?